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Phil De Carolis
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Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: April 19, 2008
Need To Sell NOW? Want Advice On Buying? Looking For Bank Owned Properties? Or If You Just Need Information Visit www.PhilDeCarolis.com
If You Would Like To Utilize My Personal Network Of Trusted And Well-Respected Real Estate Professionals ( Appraiser, Bankruptcy Attorney, (CPA) Certified Public Accountant, General Contractor, Insurance Agent, Lender, Property Inspector, Property Manager, Realtor, Termite Inspector, Real Estate Attorney, Title & Escrow Agent....etc.) To Help You Build And Maintain A Solid Foundation Contact Me Immediately.
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Press Release |
Peter Schiff On FOX Business News Tuesday April 9, 2008 (8:07 mins)
Click On The Image Below To Watch This Peter Schiff Interview
Markets Down While Oil Surges
"Right now the media is focused on the one or two people, the novelty, who might be panning for gold. By the time we reach bubble levels in the gold market, everybody is going to be panning for gold. Since we don't know what the dollar is going to be worth, my guess is that gold is going to rise to $5,000/ounce or more" -Peter Schiff
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Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"The Collapse of America's Service Economy"
Friday April 18, 2008
By Economist Peter Schiff

Recent high profile bankruptcies of mainstay American retailers, such as The Sharper Image and Linens 'n Things, as well as the proposed mergers between Blockbuster/Circuit City and Delta/Northwest, and the admissions from the nation's leading student lenders that their business models are no longer viable, mark the beginning of a long overdue overhaul of the American economy. In short, the economy will be getting smaller and more expensive.
The success of all of these seemingly disparate sectors depends, to a large extent, on the ability of Americans to continue to borrow cheaply and easily. Now that home equity extractions and zero interest credit card rollovers can no longer be used to fund electronics purchases, vacations or tuition, those corresponding sectors are suffering. The foundation of our bloated service sector economy, supported by overseas savings and production, is now giving way.
This diminished capacity will result in a wave of bankruptcies and consolidations to restore profitability in what will become a much smaller service sector. The days of cheap consumer goods at Wal-Mart and cheap airfares at Jet Blue are coming to an end. It is all part of the process of an unprecedented decline in America's standard of living, which is the inevitable result of years of living beyond our means.
For retailers, the business model of selling cheap foreign imported goods to over- leveraged Americans was doomed from the start. It is fitting that just prior to the collapse, Wall Street private equity firms decided to jump aboard a sinking ship (Linens 'n Things was purchased by the Apollo Group for $1.3 billion back in 2006). No doubt the added debt subsequently piled on to the firm by the profit-squeezing buy out boys hastened the company's demise. As revenues decline and debt servicing costs rise for many retailers (who have been similarly hog-tied by private equity firms), look for additional blow-ups down the road.
As the dollar continues its historic decline, imported goods will become too costly for many Americans. In addition, more of those products still made (or more likely grown) here will be exported to wealthier foreign consumers whose appreciated currencies increase their purchasing power. As a result, fewer products will be available to fill our shelves and those that remain will carry much higher price tags.
In addition, as defaults on credit and store charge cards continue to increase, the market for such debt will soon disappear. As a result, the credit crunch will spread from subprime mortgages to all forms of consumer credit. Therefore, not only will Americans be staring at higher prices, but they will have to pay in cash.
Similarly, the coming airline consolidation will usher in a harsher era for the American airline industry. In truth, given the rising costs of building, flying and servicing aircraft, U.S. carriers currently supply more planes and passenger miles than American consumers can afford to utilize. While this may seem illogical in a time when domestic flights are usually fully booked, it is important to realize that these crowded planes do not translate into profit at current ticket prices. While mergers may help the airlines hold down costs for a bit, the only lasting pathway to profit is fewer flights and significantly higher ticket prices. Of course, this will mean that Americans of modest means will travel less by air. Unfortunately, that fact is simply an inevitable consequence of a sagging currency and diminishing national wealth.
Although many Americans have come to regard affordable air travel as a birth right, from a global perspective it remains the province of the wealthy. The massive borrowing that has financed the American economy for generations, combined with an evaporating industrial base and a lack of domestic savings have combined to lower American's wealth in comparison to the rest of the world. Consequently, as more materials, technicians and jet fuel go to service the burgeoning Asian air travel industry, the higher the costs will become for American travelers. As with other hallmarks of a diminished standard of living, Americans now have to confront the reality of staying closer to home.
The same mathematics will come into play for our ridiculously expensive higher education system, which can not exist without a well lubricated loan infrastructure. Limit the ability of students to take on heavy loans, and college education becomes untouchable for anyone but the wealthiest Americans. If loans dry up, universities will be forced to slash their bureaucracies and substantially reduce tuitions. Ironically the silver lining here is that with low tuitions students will no longer need the loans that kept tuitions so high in the first place.
For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
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Click The Icon To Listen To The April 16, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
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The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show
April 19, 2008 Parts 1 & 2
Bruce Norris is joined by Co-founder and Chairman of National Recreational Properties, Real Estate Disposition Corporation (REDC), LandAuction.com, and author of Auction Revolution and soon to be released How to Make a Fortune at Real Estate Auctions, Robert Friedman. Bruce and Robert discuss how long Robert has been involved in auctions, how he got started, land auctions, the evolution of auctions in cycles past, terms for land auctions, land auctions in the coming years, if REDC can handle more volume, how the volume so far and the magnitude of the downturn was unexpected, how his company goes about buying land, underwriting title, current clients of REDC auctions, the different kinds of auctions, the type of auction REDC uses and why, why banks lean to a certain type of auction, introduction of buyers' premium at auctions, where the profit center is now for auction companies, advantages of absolute auction if any, licensing for becoming an auctioneer, Robert's new book, the amount of people it takes to pull off a great auction, how marketing has changed for auction companies, the Internet and real estate marketing, working with builders, early lessons in the industry, ballroom auctions versus other types and why Robert chooses ballroom, most active areas, benefits to having an established brand at auction, why auctions have never been accepted in booming markets, and the stigma with auctions in a down market.
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Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff
"Fed Hawks Lacker, Fisher Warn On Inflation"- Rueters
April 17 --Two top Federal Reserve officials warned on Thursday against the risks of inflation, in remarks that underscored the existence of a hard wing of policy-makers who oppose further interest rate cuts. Both Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker and Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, in separate speeches cited the dangers of delaying moves to rein in inflation. Fisher is a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this and in March cast one of two dissenting votes against a decision to cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point. Lacker, who has taken hawkish stances previously on inflation, is not a voter on the policy committee this year...........................
Click Here To See The Entire Article
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Recession:
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff
"Latest Economic Tea Leaves Point To Recession"-The Associated Press
April 18 -- Higher unemployment claims and weak readings from two economic indexes reinforced recession worries Thursday. The Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits rose to 372,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week. Separately, the New York-based Conference Board's gauge of future economic activity rose 0.1 percent for March, reversing five months of decline. But the private business group's indicator has shown a 3.3 percent annual rate of decline since March 2007.............................
Click On This Link To View The Entire Article |
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Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff
"Dollar Hits Lows Vs. Euro For 2nd Day In A Row" - CNN Money
April 17 -- The dollar hit record lows against the euro Thursday for a second consecutive day, but regained some ground after a European Union official said the 15-nation currency was heading in an "undesirable" direction. The euro threatened to break $1.60 for the first time ever, trading at $1.5982 in early trading, above the record $1.5978 it fetched Wednesday. But the euro dropped back below $1.59 after Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said it is moving in a "direction I don't consider desirable." Juncker leads talks among finance ministers from the 15 countries that use the currency...........................
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Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
"Inflation Pushes Higher In Europe And The U.S." -Rueters
April 16 - Inflation showed no signs of slowing in Europe or the United States last month, fresh data revealed, and the euro rose to another record against the dollar Wednesday amid expectations that central bankers on opposite sides of the Atlantic would react differently. The Labor Department in Washington reported that U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in March from February, and 4 percent from a year earlier. So-called core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2 percent from February. That report came after Eurostat, the EU statistical agency, said inflation in the 15 countries that use the euro rose 1 percent in March from the previous month, and by a record 3.6 percent from a year earlier. The agency had previously reported March annualized inflation of 3.5 percent, also a record...................
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Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff
"California Home Prices Fall 26 Percent Amid Foreclosures "- BusinessWeek
April 17 -- A glut of foreclosed homes helped prompt a 26 percent plunge in California home prices in March, highlighting a trend that experts said is likely to continue as low, introductory interest rates expire for people who bought near the height of the housing boom. More than 38 percent of California homes sold in March had been foreclosed at some point during the previous year, DataQuick Information Systems said in its survey released Thursday. Figures for previous years were not immediately available, but company analyst John Karevoll said the March percentage for foreclosed home sales was believed to be an all-time high for the state. The state's median home price was $358,000 last month, down from $484,000 in March 2007, when the market peaked, DataQuick said. The number of new and resale houses and condos sold during the month fell 38.3 percent from a year earlier to 24,565.........................
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Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
"Gold Heads For Second Weekly Advance In London on Dollar, Oil"- Bloomberg
April 18 -- Gold headed for a second weekly gain in London as the dollar weakened and oil traded near a record, bolstering demand for the metal as an inflation and currency hedge. Platinum was also set for a weekly advance. Gold has had a correlation of 0.76 against the euro-dollar in the past month, compared with 0.64 in the past year. A figure of 1 would mean the two move in lockstep. German producer-price inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 15 months in March, the Federal Statistics Office said today. ``With concerns about inflation and recession continuing to draw buying interest on dips, we expect gold to remain supported short-term and ultimately move to higher levels,'' James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, wrote in a report. Gold for immediate delivery fell $3.22 to $935.58 an ounce as of 12:30 p.m. in London. The metal has gained 1.1 percent this week, after advancing 1.3 percent last week. Gold traded at a record $1,032.70 an ounce March 17.....................
Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
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Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
"Oil Futures Jump To Record Over $115 On Supply Concerns"- Associated Press
April 16 -- Crude futures made their first foray past $115 Wednesday, propelled to a new record by concerns about how much gas will be available during the peak summer months. Inventories of gas fell by 5.5 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, a much bigger decline than forecast by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Light, sweet crude for May delivery responded by rising as high as $115.07 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and later settled up $1.14 at a record $114.93 a barrel.The report said crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, compared to the gain analysts expected. Oil prices were also boosted by the falling dollar, which declined to a new low against the euro on Wednesday. Many investors buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation and a falling greenback. A weaker dollar also makes oil cheaper to investors overseas. But the market was torn and traded sharply lower at times due to data deeper in the report showing that the country's appetite for increasingly expensive gas is declining...............
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Futures Prices
Todays Prices (April 19, 2008)
*Gold Futures $915.2/Ounce (Down)
Last Weeks Prices (April 12, 2008)
*Dollar Index 72.065/Basket Of Currencies
*Gold Futures $927/Ounce
* Crude Oil $110.14/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 2.25%
Federal Discount Rate 2.50%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.63%
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
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| Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com |
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| Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353
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