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Phil De Carolis
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Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: April 26, 2008
Need To Sell NOW? Want Advice On Buying? Looking For Bank Owned Properties? Or If You Just Need Information Visit www.PhilDeCarolis.com
If You Would Like To Utilize My Personal Network Of Trusted And Well-Respected Real Estate Professionals ( Appraiser, Bankruptcy Attorney, (CPA) Certified Public Accountant, General Contractor, Insurance Agent, Lender, Property Inspector, Property Manager, Realtor, Termite Inspector, Real Estate Attorney, Title & Escrow Agent....etc.) To Help You Build And Maintain A Solid Foundation Contact Me Immediately.
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Press Release |
Peter Schiff On Bloomberg Thursday April 17, 2008 (4:20 mins)
Click On The Image Below To Watch This Peter Schiff Interview
Bank Of America Discontinues Its Student Loan Products
"Investors need to stay clear of the United States. I am very bearish on the U.S. Economy but I am bullish on the global economy. Investors need to understand that the dollar is in decline, Ben Bernanke is imposing a massive tax on americans who own U.S. Dollars. Investors need to invest abroad, they need to buy stocks in foreign countries so that they can get their income in Euros, Swiss Francs, etc. Investors need to buy commodities, gold and things that are rising as the FED debases the value of the Dollar" -Peter Schiff
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Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"Why Not Let Markets Set Prices?"
Friday April 25, 2008
By Economist Peter Schiff

Those unfamiliar with marketplace dynamics may not recognize how government activity has created price distortions across our economy. Much as government mandated easy credit propelled home prices to bubble levels, similar forces pushed college tuitions up to the stratosphere. Both systems are currently breaking down along similar lines. The fractures reveal much about the problems that arise when government interfere with credit allocation.
In light of the staggering cost of college education today, it may seem unbelievable that my father in the early 1950s was able to finance his own education with a summer job waiting tables. Like most in his generation, eight weeks of work per year allowed him to graduate debt free. In contrast, the debt burden now heaped on today's college graduates is so oppressive that the financial challenges are becoming a palpable psychological strain on an entire generation.
The irony is that without easy access to student loans, which have been touted as a means to ease college affordability, tuitions never could have risen so high in the first place. Sadly, it is not students who have benefited, but the educational establishment that receives the proceeds. Colleges collect huge sums of money up front while students get saddled with staggering balances.
Now that repaying loans has become increasingly difficult for home buyers and students (especially since the home equity well has run dry and the employment market has cooled), more debtors are defaulting. As a result, the market for securitized loans, which has completely dried up in the mortgage market, is now equally desolate for student loans. Here again, the government is being asked to pick up the slack by buying existing student loans and issuing new loans directly to students.
In so doing, the government is helping to sustain high tuitions just as similar actions are working to prop up real estate prices. If the government stayed out of the student loan market, students would not be denied educations. Colleges and universities would simply be forced to offer affordable tuitions or go out of business --just the way they used to back in my father's day. Similarly, if the government allowed real estate prices to collapse, Americans would not have to take on so much debt to buy houses.
To buy up all of these loans, the Fed is running the printing presses non-stop. As a result, prices of other goods, such as food and energy, are spiraling out of control.
Of course, mainstream Wall Street firms and the conventional financial media do not see this obvious connection. While CNBC searches the world for clues to this "mystery", no one sees the evidence "hiding" in plain sight. Higher prices simply result from all the money printing, both by the Fed and foreign central banks trying to maintain currency pegs to a sinking dollar.
It is amazing how those who were completely blindsided by the surge in food prices are now so quick to come up with ridiculous reasons to explain the phenomenon. However, for those of us who actually understand what inflation is, predicting the current surge in food prices was a no brainer. Read one of my commentaries from Oct. of 2006 and see for yourself.
Similarly, analysts are blaming $120 oil on the hidden machinations of greedy speculators. They buttress these claims by noting that absent a bona fide oil shortage, current prices are not justified by fundamentals. This overlooks that while there is no shortage, there is also no surplus. The market is in perfect equilibrium at today's price, and recent spikes merely reflect the substantial increase in global money supply. If today's prices really were artificially high, like house prices, they would be a glut of oil in storage facilities while users, priced out of an inflated market, cut back on their consumption (This is precisely what is happening in the real estate market).
As consumers are getting wise to inflation, they are beginning to stock up on those products showing the most rapid price increases. This week, Cosco and Sam's Club began to limit bulk purchases of rice. After all, if you have the cash why not by the things you know you will need in the future now, before the prices go any higher. My guess is that if home storage were possible, consumers would be buying as much gasoline and home heating oil as they could currently afford...they might even load up their credit cards to do so. After airfares (which unfortunately cannot be stockpiled), apparel may be the next major category of goods that will experience rapid price increases. Why not buy a few extra pairs of socks while they are still cheap?
As the government creates more inflation, and prices for all sorts of consumer goods spiral upward, the authorities, as they always have, will likely institute price controls and other forms of rationing of consumer staples. My advice is to stock up now, before you end up having to spend hours waiting in line.
For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
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Click The Icon To Listen To The April 23, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
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The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show
April 26, 2008 Part 1
Bruce Norris is joined by one of the Nation's best salesmen and sales trainers, Ben Gay III. Bruce and Ben discuss how Ben's life changed when he answered an ad from Bill Dempsey, how Ben got his start in the sale business, working for one of the first multi-level companies called Holiday Magic, rubbing shoulders with some of America's best known salesmen including J. Douglas Edwards, Zig Ziglar, Earl Nightingale, Napoleon Hill, and Fred Herman, the concept of no graduation day for a professional sales person, Closers 2 and the sales infiltrator concept, the normal sales setup and how the sales infiltrator changes the dynamics, thinking on the behalf of the client and how that wins loyal customers, www.bfg3.com.
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Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff
"Bernanke Grapples With Greenspan As Volcker Scorns Fed Bailouts"- Bloomberg
April 21 -- The event was a 2002 conference at the University of Chicago to celebrate the Nobel laureate Milton Friedman's 90th birthday. When Ben S. Bernanke rose to speak, he said that the Federal Reserve, of which he was then a governor, had come around to Friedman's view that the central bank's blunders were to blame for the Great Depression. ``We're very sorry,'' Bernanke said, prompting laughter. ``But thanks to you, we won't do it again.'' Bernanke, a longtime scholar of the 1929-to-1933 panic, now has the unwelcome task of trying to keep a new financial calamity from turning into a full-blown depression. What started as a meltdown in the market for subprime mortgages has turned into a worldwide credit and economic crisis............................
Click Here To See The Entire Article
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Recession:
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff
"Many States Appear To Be In Recession"-The Associated Press
April 25 -- The finances of many states have deteriorated so badly that they appear to be in a recession, regardless of whether that's true for the nation as a whole, a survey of all 50 state fiscal directors concludes. The situation looks even worse for the fiscal year that begins July 1 in most states. "Whether or not the national economy is in recession - a subject of ongoing debate - is almost beside the point for some states," said the report to be released Friday by the National Conference Of State Legislature. The weakening economy is hitting tax revenue in a number of ways: People's discretionary income is being gobbled up by higher food and fuel costs, while the tanking housing market means people are spending less on furniture and appliances associated with buying a house..............................
Click On This Link To View The Entire Article |
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Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff
"Dollar Hits New Low As Euro Passes $1.60" - Wall Street Journal
April 23 -- The dollar dropped to a new low against the euro Tuesday, as the single currency climbed above the symbolic $1.60 level on growing expectations for an increase in the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rates. Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer, a member of the ECB's governing council, was the latest official to suggest ECB rate increases could be on the table. On Tuesday he said the bank is prepared to raise interest rates to bring inflation below the 2% level in 2009............................
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Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
April 25 - The headlines read as if they come from far-off, struggling lands, but, no, concerns about hoarding rice and a shortage of flour have hit businesses in America at a time of skyrocketing agricultural prices. Commercial bakers say they are stocking up on specialty rye and gluten flour because of fear that supplies are dwindling. And Costco's chief executive said the big-box retailer is thinking twice about letting customers buy multiple pallets of flour to preserve supplies. Restaurants and other large-scale customers appear to be buying so much rice that Costco, Sam's Club and other wholesalers have put limits on the amounts they sell, leading some consumers to stock up. This has resulted in some individual stores in places like California reportedly running out of rice....................
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(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff
April 23 -- Sinking home values and the collapse of flimsy mortgages fueled a record number of foreclosures in California in the first three months of this year, dimming prospects for any quick recovery in the housing market. The number of homes lost to foreclosure rose to a record 47,171, more than four times as many as a year earlier. Default notices -- the first step toward foreclosure -- were sent to owners of 110,000 California homes from Jan. 1 to March 31, according to La Jolla- based DataQuick Information Systems. That's about 1.4% of the homes in the state.
Defaults are up 143% from the same period last year. Homeowners in default can avoid foreclosure by catching up on payments, refinancing or selling. But fewer are doing so. Just 32% of the properties in default will avoid foreclosure, DataQuick estimates, down from 52% a year ago.
That decline reflects the slow real estate market, which is being further weakened by the flood of bargain-priced foreclosures coming on the market, real estate experts say. Those foreclosures are taking a bigger share of the home sale market. Statewide, foreclosures made up 33.1% of all home resales in the first quarter, DataQuick said, up from 3.2% a year earlier. As with home values, outlying areas that attracted new-home buyers and speculators during the boom are being hardest hit by bank repossessions. In San Francisco County, foreclosures accounted for 5.1% of resales, DataQuick said. But in San Joaquin County, which includes Stockton, 66.7% of all resales were foreclosures. In San Bernardino County, Deputy Sheriff Mike Strickland says he is now delivering eviction notices to six or seven foreclosed houses a day, about twice as many as last year. "It's full-bore now," Strickland said. Most of the evictions are in new housing developments, he said, and the occupants have usually abandoned the property by the time he gets there..........................
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Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
"Gold Rises As Oil Costs Jump, Signaling Inflation; Silver Gains"- Bloomberg
April 28 -- Gold climbed as energy costs rose to a record, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude oil soared to $119.93 a barrel, the highest ever, after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and a strike and rebel attacks in Nigeria disrupted production. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil jumped 57 percent, spurring the biggest increase in the U.S. inflation rate since 1990. ``Gold is holding up on oil and because of the threat of inflation,'' said Miguel Perez-Santalla, a vice president for sales at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York......................
Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
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Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
"Saudis Warn On Oil Capacity"- Financial Times
April 22 -- The biggest threat to the future security of oil supplies is the lack of spare production capacity worldwide, Saudi Arabia warned on Tuesday. In unusually frank remarks, Ali Naimi, the kingdom's oil minister, said: "Limited capacity along the entire supply chain is the real source of current global supply tightness and represents the greatest threat to ensuring adequate energy to fuel future economic growth." His comments came as oil prices rose to a fresh all-time high of $119.86 a barrel on worries that supply outages in Nigeria and the UK could cause shortages in the market................
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Futures Prices
Todays Prices (April 26, 2008)
*Gold Futures $890/Ounce (Down)
Last Weeks Prices (April 19, 2008)
*Dollar Index 72.255/Basket Of Currencies
*Gold Futures $915.2/Ounce
* Crude Oil $116.97/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 2.25%
Federal Discount Rate 2.50%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.87%
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
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| Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com |
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| Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353
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