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Phil De Carolis-Prudential California Realty

Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: April 5, 2008

Need To Sell NOW? Want Advice On Buying? Looking For Bank Owned Properties? Or If You Just Need Information Visit www.PhilDeCarolis.com

Press Release
 Peter Schiff On FOX Business News Tuesday April 1, 2008 (6:04 mins)
 Click On The Image Below To Watch This Peter Schiff Interview
 
U.K. Paper Declares "Great Depression" For U.S. In 2008
Peter Schiff On FOX Business News In April 5, 2008 
"In the 1920's the Federal Reserve inflated the stock market bubble, it burst, and then when the recession ensued, the politicians, both Hoover and Roosevelt, didn't want the free market to sort it out, they came to the rescue trying to save everything and of course created the Great Depression . This time the Federal Reserve blew up two bubbles, first in the stock market and then in the Real Estate market that are much bigger than the bubble of the 1920's........." -Peter Schiff
 
Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"The Assault On Free Markets"

 
Friday April 4, 2008

By Economist Peter Schiff                                                                                       

 Peter Schiff & I In Newport Beach, CA March 24, 2008

Those blindsided by the recent financial meltdown are now loudly blaming the free market for its failure to police its own excesses, and are calling for greater regulation to prevent future disasters. But for those who clearly observed the problems developing (in high definition slow motion) the blame can be directed squarely at the policies of the Greenspan/Bernanke Federal Reserve. As has been the case countless times in history, the free market will now pay the price for government incompetence.

In Senate hearings this week, all parties involved completely ignored the Fed's own culpability in igniting the speculative fever. It's as if a senior prom had turned into a wild bacchanalia, and angry parents now question why the chaperones failed to notice the disrobing or why the DJ played provocative music, all the while ignoring the bearded gentleman pouring grain alcohol into the punch bowl.

A perfect illustration of the Fed's failure to take responsibility can be found in Bernanke's explanations regarding inflation, which he solely attributes to the effects of the rapid increase in global commodity prices. He failed to mention that commodity prices are rising as a direct consequence of his monetary policy, which is debasing not just the U.S. dollar, but currencies around the world. Rather than accepting the blame for creating inflation, Bernanke is shifting the blame to the free market. The Senators are happy to let him get away with it as it provides more evidence to support the "need " for more government to save the economy from the disastrous effects of unbridled capitalism.

When asked how we got into this mess, Bernanke replied that our problems resulted from an excessive credit bubble characterized by aggressive leverage, reckless lending, and extreme risk taking. Absent from his explanation was the Fed's role in irresponsibly setting interest rates below market levels, which mispriced risk, got the party started and kept it raging into the wee hours of the morning. The expressed goal of the Fed for much of this decade was, and is, to encourage and facilitate borrowing and lending.

During his testimony, Bernanke continued to claim that Bear Steams was not bailed out as shareholders only received about $10 per share. Of course, $10 is better than zero, which is what they surely would have received if the Fed hadn't thrown taxpayer money around. What about Bear's creditors though? Although the collapse of Bear Stearns would have cost bond holders dearly, the bailout essentially makes them whole. Here again, the Fed creates even greater moral hazards by encouraging excessive risk taking. By bailing out lenders who extend excessive credit, the Fed simply invites more of that behavior. The free market must be allowed to properly price risk. Lenders need to know that when they lend money, whether to highly leveraged investment banks and hedge funds, or to over-stretched homebuyers or credit card users, they risk not getting paid back. By interfering with this process the Fed simply guarantees more losses and even bigger bailouts in the future.

Also, leveraged speculators need to know that it is not "heads they win, tails the taxpayers lose". Wall Street executives amassed fortunes by making extremely risky bets. Now that those bets have soured, why is it taxpayers that have to swallow the losses? Wall Street billionaires earn their bucks on the backs of the middle class, who made little on the way up, but foot the entire bill on the way down.

While Bernanke talked about the underlying strength of our economy, he claimed necessity in saving Bear Stearns from bankruptcy as it would have brought down our entire financial system. How sound can our economy be if the failure of one investment bank could topple it? Does this now mean that no more major banks or brokerage firms will be allowed to fail? Since we routinely accused Japan of practicing "crony capitalism" what do you suppose we should call our version?

Not to be outdone in rewarding reckless behavior, earlier in the week Congress passed $15 billion in tax breaks for homebuilders, who had made their fortunes overbuilding during the bubble and unloading their shares to a gullible public. By threatening to hold back on their political contributions, these same homebuilders are awarded still more billions. The last ones we should be subsidizing are homebuilders. After all, the last thing we need right now is more homes.

The legislation also contained a provision that offers generous tax credits to individuals who buy homes out of foreclosure. While this is billed as a benefit to homebuyers, it is just another hand out to lenders, as those qualifying for the tax breaks will simply pay more at auctions as the tax breaks subsidize higher bids. The real winners are the creditors who get more in foreclosure than would have been the case had buyers not had their bids subsidized by the government.

Of course, for all the talk about taxpayer bailouts, none of the senators bothered to mention that, for the moment, no tax increases are actually on the table. Instead, the bailouts are being financed by savers, pensioners, wage earners, investors and the elderly on fixed incomes, who all suffer staggering increases in their costs of living, as the Fed uses inflation to rob Main Street to pay off Wall Street.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
 
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
Click The Icon To Listen To The April 2, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
 
Wall Street Unspun

The Norris Group Real Estate Radio ShowBruce Norris
 
April 5, 2008 Part 2
Bruce Norris is joined once again by auction legend, co-founder of Williams and Williams Auctions, and current president of the National Auctioneers Association, Tommy Williams. Bruce and Tommy discuss what the duties are as the president of the National Auctioneer Association, foreign countries and the auction process, the lessons to be learned from foreign countries, the leading foreign auction country, auction cycles and the psychology of acceptance, Tommy's dream for the auction process, the biggest impediments for the auction method to gain wider acceptance, the possible synergy with Realtors, what the National Auctioneer Association is doing to reach out with the National Association of Realtors, the number one auction category in the United States, what rules or regulations could be put in place to help the auction process, Tommy's wish to see foreclosure process change, the perception of auctions and how its changed over the years, what the public thinks about auctions and how Ebay has played an important role, shill bidding on Ebay, the benefits to joining the National Auctioneers Association (NAA), the national auction publications, the education process of an auctioneer, how the auction industry self regulates against those that abuse the system, how word of mouth weeds out the bad seeds, rookie mistakes of auctioneers, the importance of understanding value, how the business has changed since the Internet, marketing being the most important ingredient for the auction process, the future for the Williams and Williams auction company. http://williamsauction.com.
 
 
The Norris Group Radio Show
 
 
Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff

"Hey, Fed: Stop Robbing My Savings And Stop The Inflation"- DowJones

April 2 -- In response to our request for readers to tell the Federal Reserve what their worries were, there was a bevy of stories about how families were dipping into savings to pay bills or finding themselves with little money left for food and clothing. "Worried about rising health insurance, higher local taxes, higher transportation costs, higher food, tuition, energy costs," BobP863 wrote. "I'm worried that everything I need is going up. Meanwhile, my savings will be going down." Querin was more succinct: "I am worried about three things: Inflation, inflation and inflation." Indeed, a common thread throughout most of the nearly 200 postings was that the Federal Reserve screwed up by again lowering interest rates, which devalues the dollar and hits Americans living on interest payments particularly hard..........................

 
Click Here To See The Entire Article

Recession:
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff

"U.S. Suffers Biggest Jobs Drop
In 5 Years As Downturn Spreads
"-The Wall Street Journal

April 5 -- The U.S. economy lost 80,000 jobs in March, the biggest drop in five years, as weakness in the labor market spread beyond housing and finance to engulf a broad swath of businesses. The bigger-than-expected employment drop keeps pressure on policy makers at the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates aggressively when they meet at the end of April. The drop in employment was the third consecutive monthly decline. Also, revised data showed that employers cut 76,000 jobs in both January and February, more than previously thought. Together, the numbers offer the most persuasive evidence yet that the economy has slipped into a recession. The Labor Department also said that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.1% last month from 4.8% the month before. A rise of that magnitude has never occurred in the postwar period without the economy being in a recession, Bear Stearns economists said.............................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 
 
"Dollar Falls Versus Euro As Job Losses Raise Recession Concern" - Bloomberg
 
Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
 
"Shoppers Scrimp As Food Prices Rise" -Rueters
 
April 4 -  Patricia Norris' family is feeling the one-two punch of higher fuel and food prices. Her husband works as messenger, driving around to deliver packages. But the job is not as profitable as it once was because rising fuel prices are eating into his earnings. With money tight and food prices rising, Norris can no longer afford to buy beef and chicken on a regular basis. "We buy meat only for special occasions. Like for Easter, we had a ham," she said after a shopping trip at her local Wal-Mart in Romeoville, a mixed blue- and white-collar suburb of Chicago. Norris must purchase only what is on her shopping list, to avoid spending more than she can afford. "Sometimes I cry," she said, when she passes items on store shelves she can no longer buy..................
 
Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 
 
"Home Prices Fall In 21 U.S. Cities Amid Foreclosures"- Bloomberg
 

April 3 -- Home prices declined in 21 U.S. cities in January, led by Sacramento and Las Vegas, as banks sold foreclosed homes at bargain prices. The price per square foot in Sacramento, the capital of California, dropped 28 percent to $166 from a year earlier, according to a report released today by New York-based Radar Logic Inc., a real estate data company. Las Vegas fell 25 percent to $137 a square foot. Rising foreclosures and tighter lending standards are deepening the U.S. housing slump as it enters its third year. The median price of an existing single-family home dropped 8.7 percent in February from a year earlier, the most in four decades of record keeping, the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors said in a March 24 report.. .........................

Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
 
"Gold Gains in London As Equity Markets Decline; Silver Rises"Bloomberg
 

Mar. 31 -- Gold rose in London, leading other precious metals higher, as global stocks headed for the worst quarter since 2002, increasing the attractiveness of commodities as an alternative investment. The 1,941-member MSCI World Index has dropped 10 percent this quarter, which would be the worst performance since the third quarter of 2002. Gold has gained 13 percent, its best performance in dollar terms since at least the 1970s. ``With equity markets under pressure people are sticking with gold,'' Robin Bhar, an analyst at UBS AG, said by phone from London today. The bank expects gold to reach $950 an ounce by the end of next month....................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article


Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
 
"Crude Oil Rises As U.S. Refinery Shutdowns Reduce Fuel Supplies"- Bloomberg
 

April 4 --  Crude oil rose in New York as lower refinery production and unplanned plant shutdowns in the U.S. curb supplies of gasoline and other fuels. Valero Energy Corp. and ConocoPhillips, the top two U.S. refiners, have cut output as crude prices outpaced gains in gasoline and diesel, paring processing profits while resulting in lower fuel supplies. Service industries in the U.S. contracted less than forecast in March, easing concern the economy was deteriorating quickly. ``The planned run cuts and economically motivated run cuts are helping the energy complex,'' said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. "The ISM report came out better than expected, so on the economic front we are still not sure about a slowdown.''  Crude oil for May delivery rose as much 52 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $104.35 a barrel in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $104.18 at 10:10 a.m. Singapore time. Prices are up 62 percent from a year ago..............

 
Futures Prices 
 
Todays Prices (April 5, 2008)
*Gold Futures $913.2/Ounce (Down)
 
Last Weeks Prices (March 29, 2008)
*Dollar Index 72.105/Basket Of Currencies 
*Gold Futures $930.6/Ounce 
* Crude Oil $105.62/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 2.25%
Federal Discount Rate 2.50%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.75%
 
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at
Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353


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