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Phil De Carolis-Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: February 23, 2008 Press Release
  Why Is Oil Headed Back Up?:
"The FED Prints A Bunch Of Money That We Send Abroad Causing Foreign Central Banks To Print A Bunch Of Money. It Is A Money Printing Fest. As A Result, Prices For Everything Are Going Up Including Oil. Oil Is Going To Keep Going Up As Long As The World Is Printing Money"- Peter Schiff
     
Peter Schiff On FOX Business News Feb 19, 2008 
Click On The Image Above To Watch A FOX Panel That Included Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff On FOX Business News Tuesday Feb 19, 2008 (5:26 mins)
Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"Inflation: America's Greatest Export"

 
Friday February 22, 2008

By Economist Peter Schiff                                                                                       

 Peter Schiff

Unfortunately one of the few things still made in America is inflation. In fact, it now ranks as our greatest export.

A significant by-product of the current global economic system, wherein Americans spend money they do not earn to buy foreign products that they do not make, is that trillions of dollars are now parked in foreign banks just looking for somewhere to go.

In a healthy trade relationship, a nation pays for its imports with equal exports that result from real productivity that pumps up demand. In contrast, the current U.S. import boom has been created by the artificial demand of inflation, in which increased money supply has put more dollars in the hands of U.S. consumers. Normally, such growth in money supply would result in more substantial increases in domestic consumer prices. However for a number of reasons, the United States has been able to partially dodge this bullet. In short, we have exported our inflation abroad.

Our foreign creditors basically have two choices as how to dispose of their excess dollars. They can use them to buy U.S. financial assets, such as bonds, stocks or real estate, or they can exchange them for other currencies or commodities, such as gold or oil. If they choose the former, foreign central banks are off the hook, as those dollars find their way back to the U.S. economy without any additional money creation. However, as foreigners are increasingly choosing the latter, foreign central banks have been "forced" to print money like it's going out of style.

In years past, foreign investors were happy to hold strong U.S. dollars, which they either saved as a store of value, or used to purchase mighty Wall Street stocks and bonds. However, when the dollar began its epic swan dive, and U.S. investments began to grossly underperform non-U.S. alternatives, private investors dumped their dollars en masse by exchanging them for local currencies. The unwanted dollars then became the property and problem of foreign central banks.

If central banks did not buy these dollars, foreign citizens would have been forced to sell their surplus dollars on the open market. To prevent this from happening these banks have become the buyers of first and last resort. However, to sop up all of the excess supply, central banks must create more of their own, resulting in rapidly expanding money supplies. As much as Wall Street and government economists pretend otherwise, the expansion of money supply is the essential definition of inflation. The real reason that prices are rising in China is that so many yuan are being printed to buy up all these surplus dollars.

For much of the past decade foreign central banks invested their swelling U.S. dollar reserves in U.S. debt instruments, such as treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Not incidentally, these purchases helped sustain our housing and credit bubbles. But as a result of increasingly poor returns, sovereign wealth funds have recently been created to buy tangible assets instead, such as large portions of Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Thus far these investments have performed poorly (note the 50% decline in the value of the China's stake in Blackstone). However, my guess is that such losses are of little concern, as the Chinese understand that any active use of their dollars, regardless of short-term performance, is seen as a positive because ultimately their unused dollars might be practically worthless!

It is no accident that those regions experiencing the highest inflation are those with currencies pegged to the dollar. The formerly strong dollar provided a compelling rationale for nations with weaker currencies to maintain currency pegs. The linkage provided badly needed discipline to their central banks and created confidence in their currencies. However, it makes no sense at all for a nation with a strong currency to peg to a weaker one. It is analogous to an honor student cheating on his exam by copying the answers from the worst student in the class.

Many economic analysts have noted that rising prices in China are now resulting in higher import prices for Americans. Ironically, many have concluded that this is evidence of China exporting inflation to the U.S. rather than China merely returning the inflation to its original source.

Initially, the strong productivity growth of these export nations worked to lower consumer prices and masked the inflationary impact of rapid money supply growth. However, with prices now exploding throughout Asia and the Middle East, governments can no longer ignore the inflation problem. China has recently imposed price controls to deal with rapid increases in consumer prices. However, as this merely attempts to mask the symptoms of inflation rather than addressing its root cause, this policy will prove as ineffective as it did in the United States in the 1970's. Once all of these misguided cures fail, Asia and the Gulf nations will swallow the only medicine that will work. They will completely pull the plug on their dollar pegs. When they do it will not just be the dollar, but the entire American economy that goes down the drain.

The manner in which this massive bundle of funds will be disposed will have a gargantuan impact on the trajectory of the world economy. Unfortunately for America, the decisions are out of our hands, but the ramifications will largely be ours to bear.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
 
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
Click The Icon To Listen To The February 20th Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
 
Wall Street Unspun

The Norris Group Real Estate Radio ShowBruce Norris
 
February 23, 2008
Bruce Norris is joined this week by economist Gary Watts. Bruce and Gary discuss Gary's long history of forecasting in California, what surprised him in 2007, how the financing industry put the breaks on the low and high end inventory in California, psychology playing a role in the California real estate market, how this cycle was different from previous cycles, renting versus buying in the mind of a buyer, how much of the loan pool is subprime, how much of the subprime is really a problem, collateralized debt and the mess it has created, FHA and VA loans, how the new loan limits for FHA will hopefully help, how the change might hurt the median price, pent-up demand in certain parts of California, who make up these new buyers, the FED and the solutions they've tried to implement, how freezing the subprime might help or hurt the market, foreign markets and lending practices, which foreign country buys the most real estate in the United States, foreigners betting on a short-term weak dollar and a good potential for a rebound, and how the election could effect real estate.
 
 
The Norris Group Radio Show
 
 
Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff

"Stern Fed Talk: Rate Cuts 'Appropriate'"- The Wall Street Journal

Feb 19 -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern defended recent central-bank rate cuts as "wholly appropriate," and he warned the U.S. economy may be in for a period of weaker growth. The Fed "has taken appropriate policy steps to respond to a financial shock" that parallels the financial strains seen in the U.S. during the early 1990s, he said. While Stern offered an outlook that predicted the economy would continue to grow, he nevertheless said policy makers "need to remain sensitive to evolving financial conditions.".................

 
Click Here To See The Entire Article
Recession
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff
 
"Tips Slow With Economy" -Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Feb 21 -- Atlanta cab driver Alemu Wossen's workday has stretched to 16 hours, six days a week as he tries to recoup his losses from fewer fares and even fewer tips. Parking attendants at AAA Parking in downtown Atlanta face a similar problem. Many now work two jobs and take public transit to work......................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 
 
"Dollar Slips Vs. Euro, Pound, Yen" -Associated Press
 
Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
 
"Expect Food Prices To Keep Rising, Industry Says" -USA Today
 
Feb. 20 -  Americans who dug deeper into their pockets for groceries last year will face sticker shock again this year when shopping for food, experts said Thursday. Consumer food prices are expected to rise 3.0% to 4.0% this year after a 4.0% gain in 2007, said USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber at the U.S. Agriculture Department's annual outlook conference. He added that "overall retail food prices for 2008 to 2010 are expected to rise faster than the general inflation rate." "There's going to be real food inflation in this country," said C. Larry Pope, president and chief executive of U.S. beef processor Smithfield Foods. Prices of grain futures have surged lately. For example, wheat futures have more than doubled on the Chicago Board of Trade over the last 12 months. Pope said meat shoppers eventually will pay for the rally because farmers who raise livestock cannot absorb the sharp escalation in feed costs.............
 
Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 
 
"Homeowners Losing Equity Lines"- Washington Post
 

Feb. 23 -- In one brief phone call, Nancy Corazzi's lender yanked away what was left of the $95,000 home equity line of credit that she and her husband took out five months ago. The lender informed her that her Howard County home had plummeted in value and the company did not want the risk that she would owe more than the house was worth. "I got off the phone and I was shaking," said Corazzi, who was using the money to pay preschool tuition for her twins ."I was near tears. We needed this credit line to get us through some tough times." Several of the nation's largest lenders, along with smaller ones, are shutting off access to home equity lines in areas where home values are declining. It's an unusually aggressive move as the industry grapples with fallout from the mortgage crisis that began unfolding last year. Now that home prices have dropped in many parts of the country, lenders are nervous that they may never collect the money that they extended to borrowers. They are responding by freezing or lowering the credit limits on home equity lines, leaving thousands of borrowers like Corazzi in the lurch.....................

Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
 
"Gold Near Record as Oil Fuels Inflation, Silver at 27-Year High"Bloomberg
 

Feb. 21 -- Gold traded near a record as a rally in oil and farm commodities boosted demand for precious metals as a hedge against inflation and investors expected the U.S. to lower borrowing costs again. Silver gained to 27-year high. Gold has touched a record 13 times this year and jumped to $945.60 an ounce yesterday as crude oil rose to $101.32 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1983 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Some investors buy bullion as a store of value at times of inflation pressures. "It seems gold is gathering steam and $1,000 an ounce is not far off, with inflation picking up.................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article


Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
 
"Oil Jumps Above $100 on Refinery Outage"-Associated Press
 

Feb. 19 --  Oil futures shot higher Tuesday, closing above $100 for the first time as investors bet that crude prices will keep climbing despite evidence of plentiful supplies and falling demand. At the pump, gas prices rose further above $3 a gallon. There was no single driver behind oil's sharp price jump; investors seized on an explosion at a 67,000 barrel per day refinery in Texas, the falling dollar, the possibility that OPEC may cut production next month, the threat of new violence in Nigeria and continuing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela..................

Futures Prices 
 
Todays Prices (February 23, 2008)
*Gold Futures $947.8/Ounce (Up)
 
Last Weeks Prices (February 16, 2008)
*Dollar Index 76.21/Basket Of Currencies 
*Gold Futures $906.1/Ounce 
* Crude Oil $95.5/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 3.0%
Federal Discount Rate 3.5%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.76%
 
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at
Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
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Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353


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