Phil De Carolis
Home
About
Mortgage Loan Modifications
Search For A Home
Turnkey Homes
Bank Owned Homes
Real Estate Bubble?
Weekly Newsletter
Blog
YouTube Videos
Euro Pacific Capital
The Norris Group Real Estate Investments
Inflation & Int. Rates
Futures Prices
Foreclosure Law
Bankruptcy
Nearby Recent Home Sales
Local Schools
Interest Rate
Mortgage Calculator
Real Estate Q & A
Real Estate Tips
Your Dream Home
Your Home's Value
Multi-Regional MLS
Short Sale
Site Map
 


Phil De Carolis-Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: March 1, 2008
Need To Sell NOW? Want Help To Buy? Just Need Information? www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Press Release
  "The FED is debasing our money with the inflation being created, the Dollar has become like Monopoly money"- Peter Schiff
     
Peter Schiff On FOX Business News Feb 27, 2008 
Click On The Image Above To Watch A FOX Panel That Included Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff On FOX Business News Wednesday Feb 27, 2008 (6:58 mins)
Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"Hear Me Now - Believe Me Later"

 
Friday February 29, 2008

By Economist Peter Schiff                                                                                       

 Peter Schiff

Having neither the will nor the means to confront our major economic challenges, Washington is instead hanging its hopes on words alone. This week, despite the clearest signs yet that the dollar is in critical condition, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to provide reassurance by once again invoking the name of the mythical "strong dollar policy". Meanwhile across town, with the latest crop of inflation figures pointing to the greatest price surges in a generation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to do the Administration one better by insisting that inflation expectations remained "well anchored", and that stagflation was nowhere in sight.

The truth is that Bernanke's view that inflation expectations are "anchored" should be afforded as much respect as his prior pronouncements that the subprime mortgage problems were "contained". With official inflation numbers, such as PPI, CPI, and import prices showing unacceptably high levels of inflation, the dollar hitting new all-time lows, and market indicators, such gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities all heading straight up, the Fed Chairman risks losing what's left of his credibility.

Bernanke contends that the source of our inflation is rising commodity prices, which he attributes to strong global demand. This is Bernanke's attempt to shift the blame for inflation to external factors beyond his control. This of course completely misses the point that increased global demand is a direct result of the rapid increase in global money supply, the source of which is Bernanke himself. This Alfred E. Newman routine is obviously wearing thin as the dollar seems to tick down and gold ticks up every time Bernanke completes a sentence.

The biggest factor pumping up demand around the globe is the Fed's excessive money creation and irresponsible monetary easing, which requires foreign central banks to follow suit to keep their own currencies in relative alignment with the dollar. Of course, some increased demand is genuine, but that demand is being met by increased supply. It is only the artificial demand created by inflation that is pushing up prices.

Amazingly, Bernanke feels that rising food and energy prices themselves do not present a problem as long as the increases are contained in those areas. In other words, as long as these costs can be excluded from the officially messaged PCE deflator, Bernanke doesn't care if American families have to pay more to feed their families, heat their homes, and drive to work. But if these basic costs continue to rise, it doesn't matter what happens to prices of other goods as few people will have any money left to buy them.

Bernanke also seem to think that if the economy does somehow slip into recession, that inflation will subside as a consequence. This is pure nonsense, as diminished demand here at home will be offset by enhanced demand abroad. As a weak dollar forces Americans to cut back on their consumption, strengthening foreign currencies will give foreigners added purchasing power to consume more. Therefore fewer foreign made products will be imported while more domestic made, or in most cases grown, products will be exported. The result will be reduced domestic supply putting additional upward pressure on prices.

Equally naïve is the concept that the Fed can stabilize the economy now by slashing interest rates while holding out the hope that future inflation could be reined in through aggressive rate hikes in the future. Even if a recession could be avoided by easing, our economy is so dependent on cheap debt, that as soon as Bernanke reaches for his hawk mask, the economy would immediately destabilize, necessitating a fresh round of rate cuts and still more inflation. If Bernanke really were serious about fighting inflation he would do it right now. By postponing the cure he simply allows the disease to get that much worse.

Of course Bernanke is not the only one in denial. Wall Street's brain trust has recently devised many explanations that rationalize the inflation problem. For example, some argue that falling housing prices are deflationary, and negate the impact of other prices that happen to be rising. While it may be true that home prices are falling, the costs associated with home ownership itself are rising. Most homeowners are not only facing rising mortgage payments, but higher insurance, maintenance, utilities and taxes. In addition to those costs, potential home buyers also face higher down payments and tighter lending standards as well! Also, when home prices were rising few considered it an inflation problem, so why should those very people consider the reverse deflation?

Others talk about "food inflation" or "energy inflation" as if there were different kinds. There is only one type of inflation, which is an expansion of the supply of money and credit. Prices do not inflate; they merely rise and fall. When people refer to rising food prices as being "food inflation", they are shifting the blame for inflation to rising food prices, rather than attributing the rise in food prices to inflation itself.

I have heard others maintain that rising commodity prices are merely a supply problem. However, tight supply is a function of the artificial demand created by inflation. If the government handed out million-dollar bills there would be a shortage of Ferrari's as everyone would want to buy one.

Of course one of the most problematic turn of events is the way some of the Fed's biggest cheerleaders have turned critics. For example, CNBC's Larry Kudlow, who just months ago was calling for "Shock and Awe" rate cuts to boost the dollar and revive our "goldilocks economy", now blames those very rate cuts for pummeling the dollar and the economy. If the Fed cannot instill confidence among its biggest boosters, imagine how this show is playing to a more skeptical audience overseas.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
 
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
Click The Icon To Listen To The February 27th Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
 
Wall Street Unspun

The Norris Group Real Estate Radio ShowBruce Norris
 
March 1, 2008- Part 2
Bruce Norris and economist Gary Watts of Impact Real Estate continue their conversation from last week. This week they discuss when this current real estate downturn began, what statistic told us we were headed into a downturn, if Southern California is different from the rest of California, what percentage of the market was second home purchases, what has changed in the lending industry, the Federal Reserve and why they waited so long to do anything about the lending troubles, the new rules of being a lender, how certain minority groups stand to be hit hardest and how it happened, Bruce and Gary's differing opinion on affordability, resets in 2008, lenders stalling on resets, if banks can truly be proactive and what choices they have in dealing with delinquent borrowers, due-on-sale clause, the media misleading the public on foreclosure rates, how the media's lack of experience and understanding of the topics lead to bad reporting, press and its impact on real estate in an up market, consumers and attention paid to news articles, Orange County foreclosures, what cities are most affected, did builders overbuild in Orange County, how builders make mistakes, state-wide foreclosures and the never-before-seen sales ratio for Southern California, forecasting in 2008, why California wins migration, and how some areas in California are almost ready to cash flow.
 
 
The Norris Group Radio Show
 
 
Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff

"Bernanke Says Sagging Growth Is Chief Concern"- The New York Times

Feb 28 -- Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, signaled his readiness on Wednesday to bolster the economy with cheaper money even though inflation is picking up speed. The Fed chairman acknowledged that the central bank faced increasingly contradictory pressures of slowing growth and rising consumer prices. But his bottom line was that, for now, the top priority would be fighting a recession rather than fighting inflation.....................

 
Click Here To See The Entire Article
Recession
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff
 
"Businesses, Worried About Economy, Invest Less"-The New York Times

Feb 28 -- Hesitant about the shaky economy, American businesses are cutting back on investments and equipment. And the housing industry, in its worst crisis since the early 1990s, is poised for several months of anemic sales. Government reports released Wednesday reinforced concerns that the economy was facing severe headwinds. "Businesses are reluctant to invest because they still have no clue about how the economy is going to shake out over the next six to 12 months," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group, a forecasting firm in Princeton, N.J. Home builders are equally flummoxed. As buyers vanish, residential construction companies are slashing prices on unsold homes. In January, the median price of a new home fell to $216,000, down 15 percent from the previous January, according to the Commerce Department........................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 
 
"Yen Wallops Dollar" -The Wall Street Journal
 
Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
 
"Gas Prices Soar, Posing A Threat To Family Budget" -The New York Times
 
Feb. 27 -  Gasoline prices, which for months lagged behind the big run-up in the price of oil, are suddenly rising quickly, with some experts saying they could approach $4 a gallon by spring. Diesel is hitting new records daily, and oil settled at a record high of $100.88 a barrel on Tuesday. The increases could not come at a worse time for the economy. With growth slowing, energy increases that were once easily absorbed by consumers are now more likely to act as a drag on household budgets, leaving people with less money to spend elsewhere. These costs could worsen the nation's economic woes, piling a fresh energy shock on top of the turmoil in credit and housing..............
 
Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 
 
"U.S. Home Foreclosures Jump 90% as Mortgages Reset"- Bloomberg
 

Feb. 26 -- Bank seizures of U.S. homes almost doubled in January as property owners failed to make higher payments on adjustable-rate mortgages. Repossessions rose 90 percent to 45,327 last month from the same period a year ago, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of foreclosure statistics that has a database of more than 1 million properties. Total foreclosure filings, which include default and auction notices as well as bank seizures, increased 57 percent......................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
 
 
 
"Vacant Homes in U.S. Climb to Most Since 1970s With Ghost Towns"- Bloomberg
 
Feb. 29 -- When Quinn Cuthbertson looks around his new neighborhood in El Dorado Hills, California, he sees rows of empty homes and barren hillsides. A promised new school and a clubhouse haven't materialized. Cuthbertson paid $460,000 for a four-bedroom house in this northern California town named for the mythical golden city. He now suspects his neighbor spent $45,000 less. Nearby, 87 of 98 Toll Brothers Inc. home sites are undeveloped. Almost 200,000 newly constructed single-family homes are sitting empty in the U.S., the most since Commerce Department statistics began in 1973......................
 
 
Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
 
"Gold Powers To Record High On Dollar, Eyes $1,000/oz"Rueters
 

Feb. 29 -- Gold set an historic high above $975 on Friday, propelled by speculative buying on the back of record high oil and a lifetime-low dollar against the euro. The metal pared gains later as some investors took profits, but market sentiment remained bullish. Silver jumped to a 27-year peak near $20 an ounce before falling, while palladium surged nearly 4 percent to its highest in more than six years. Gold <XAU=> set a record for the third straight day, hitting $975.90 an ounce before falling to $971.10/971.85 at 1609 GMT, versus $968.90/969.70 in New York late on Thursday. It has risen 16 percent this year on the top of 32 percent rise in 2007. "All the newsflow coming out of the U.S. is hugely bullish for the gold market. In the end, what lower interest rates mean is that it will be difficult for the dollar to come back strongly," said Michael Widmer, analyst at Lehman Brothers. "Inflationary pressures are something that are also playing into the market. Fundamentals are strong and I think $1,000 would not be an end. We are going to go higher from there.".................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article


Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
 
"Oil Price Hovers Near Record High"-BBC News
 

Feb. 29 --  Strong demand for oil and the continuing weakness of the dollar meant prices remained high. A barrel of US light crude touched $103.05 during the day, but at the end of floor trading in New York, the price settled at $101.72. London Brent crude was down 69 cents at $100.21 a barrel. Demand for oil and other commodities is high among investors because of fears of a recession in the US. Oil prices fell back from their peaks as Turkey withdrew troops from northern Iraq after the end of a campaign against Kurdish separatists...................

Futures Prices 
 
Todays Prices (March 1, 2008)
*Gold Futures $975/Ounce (Up)
 
Last Weeks Prices (February 23, 2008)
*Dollar Index 75.575/Basket Of Currencies 
*Gold Futures $947.8/Ounce 
* Crude Oil $98.81/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 3.0%
Federal Discount Rate 3.5%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.94%
 
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at
Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353


Real Estate Website Design and Hosting Provided By: Advanced Access © 1998-2008