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Phil De Carolis-Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: March 22, 2008
Need To Sell NOW? Want Advice On Buying? Looking For Bank Owned Properties?        Or If You Just Need Information Visit www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Press Release
 Peter Schiff On The Glenn Beck Show Monday March 17, 2008 (10:26 mins)
 Click On The Image Below To Watch This Peter Schiff Interview
 
Peter Schiff On The Glenn Beck Show March 17, 2008 
"We are in a circumstance that compares with the "Great Depression" whether you're talking about weakness in the labor markets or the distress that we are seeing in the housing markets" -Bob O'Brien
 
Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"Alice in Wonderland"

 
Friday March 21, 2008

By Economist Peter Schiff                                                                                       

 Peter Schiff

How do you know when you're through the looking glass? A fairly good indication is when the price of gold, which normally moves up in response to monetary easing, instead plummets in reaction to one of the largest rate cuts in Fed history. Apparently, yesterday's 6% drop in gold resulted from the "hawkishness" shown by the Fed in only cutting rates by 75 basis points, rather than the 100 points that many had expected. It is a testament to how low the bar has been set that the Fed can slash rates in the face of a collapsing dollar and soaring commodity prices and still be viewed as hawkish on inflation. Is it just me, or is Ben Bernanke morphing into the Mad Hatter?

Despite the mildly tough language in its statement, it should be clear to all that the Fed sees inflation as the only politically acceptable "solution" to the problems it created. The conclusion that a 75 point cut shows concern about inflation is half right. The Fed is concerned, but only to the extent that the markets stay focused on bogus CPI numbers and fail to notice severe price increases throughout the economy. The fact is that inflation will be with us for some time, and the knee jerk drop in gold is yet another excellent buying opportunity.

As the credit and financial crisis spirals out of control, and the Fed moved $30 billion of garbage Bear Stearns debt onto the public balance sheet, the proposals coming from other market leaders are taking similarly phantasmagorical turns. Steve Forbes, in an interview on CNBC earlier in the week, proposed that the government suspend "mark-to-market" rules for one year so that holders of unsellable mortgage-backed securities no longer have to recognize losses. Remember, the dominos began to fall precisely when two Bear Stearns hedge funds were forced to actually sell assets they had failed to properly mark-to-market. Were the government to actually follow this advice it would destroy what little confidence remains in our financial system. However, Mr. Forbes believes that the markets can be spared unnecessary pain if participants can simply pretend that their holdings are worth par value. This amounts to a plea for accounting by mutually beneficial mass delusion.

Later in the week, investors were cheered by the Government's decision to slash the surplus capital requirement of already overextended Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by 33%, and by Wall Street's success in convincing investors to dump $17.9 billion into the record IPO of Visa...which may qualify as the largest sucker bet in history. But the most bizarre idea was introduced on the pages of the Wall Street Journal when veteran opinion page writer Holman Jenkins Jr. recommended that the government buy and "bulldoze" foreclosed homes in order to prop up the values of those that remain standing. I'll deal with these ideas in sequence.

After pushing through earlier proposals that allow and encourage Fannie and Freddie to buy larger loans, the reduction of capital requirements now pushes the government sponsored lenders farther out on a leveraged limb. By allowing the accumulation of even more taxpayer guaranteed debt, the moves will merely delay and exacerbate the housing problems and will increase the size of losses when these two government sponsored enterprises ultimately fail. In the meantime, by taking on more risk, the appeal of existing Fannie and Freddie insured debt will erode further, driving up mortgage costs, and creating additional losses for leveraged owners of these securities.

In the early stages of the biggest credit crunch in U.S. history, buying shares in Visa, a company that derives its revenues based on transaction fees from credit card purchases, qualifies as a particularly ill- timed investment. Perhaps buyers of these shares didn't get the memo, but the days of Americans using credit cards to buy products they cannot afford are about to come to an end. For all its flaws, Wall Street does possess an extraordinary ability to apply lipstick on any pig. For the formerly private owners of Visa, this is perhaps one the best exit strategies ever engineered, on par with the Hail Mary orchestrated by Blackstone last year (shares of Blackstone are now trading for half their IPO price).

Finally, in response to Mr. Jenkins' proposals, there is no question that we built far too many homes during the housing bubble. However, destroying them now will merely compound our losses. The one benefit we have from excess construction is an ample supply of what will soon be highly affordable homes. At the moment foreclosed houses are only unwanted because their prices are still too high. Once prices drop sufficiently there will be plenty of demand. However, destroying existing homes reduces their value to zero (actually less due to demolition costs) and only exacerbates the losses to creditors and society. Mr. Jenkins' thinking is formed by the same perverse logic that led the Roosevelt Administration to destroy farm animals and crops during the 1930's because he wanted to prop up food prices. As I wrote in my book "Crash Proof", we must certainly be on the eve of our financial destruction, as we are clearly a nation gone completely mad.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
 
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
Click The Icon To Listen To The March 19, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
 
Wall Street Unspun

The Norris Group Real Estate Radio ShowBruce Norris
 
March 22, 2008
Bruce Norris is joined by former Chief Economist with Fannie Mae and current Chief Economist with PMI Group, David Berson. Bruce and David discuss what PMI Group does, mortgage insurance, risk lenders are no longer willing to take, the size and scope of PMI Group and its services, risk averse lenders and how it all changed, practices of lenders and pushing the credit envelope in cycles, unsustainable trends and the end of subprime, lenders passing loans through new vehicles not previously available, mortgage-backed securities and CDOs, portfolio lending, expansion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and what the effects will be, investors and their assumption of risk for mortgage-backed securities, credit ratings and how they misled investors, the issue of looking backward and not forward, why pricing inflation saved the day, if the worst over, home sales and price stabilization, California in a recession, the economic signs of a recession, consumer spending, what happens if consumer spending dwindles, unemployment rates and its importance to the market, what happens if wages decline, Realtors and jobs in California, impact on bond insurers if ratings are lowered, separating muni bonds from subprime bonds, what happens when insurers go out of business, mortgage defaults, unanticipated price drops, when Fannie Mae started to be concerned, the national scope of price drops, Great Depression talk and if it's exaggerated, raising loan limits for Fannie and Freddie, the FED and their solutions, moratorium on foreclosures, what signs to look for in a recovery, bond yield spreads and what they might say about interest rate moves by the FED, stagflation, and the percentage of housing market for employment.
 
 
The Norris Group Radio Show
 
 
Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff

"Fed Cuts Main Rate to 2.25%, Says Outlook Weakened"- Bloomberg

Mar 18 -- The Federal Reserve cut its main lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent as officials try to prop up the faltering economy and restore faith in the U.S. financial system. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is struggling to cushion consumers and companies from the worst of the credit freeze that's made some of the world's biggest banks reluctant to lend to each other. Officials also showed renewed concern about inflation, making a smaller reduction than traders anticipated. Two policy makers dissented in favor of ``less aggressive action.'' ``Recent information indicates that the outlook for economic activity has weakened further,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement today after meeting in Washington. At the same time, ``inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen.'' Stocks extended their rally, pushing the Standard and Poor's 500 Index 4.2 percent higher to 1,330.74. The dollar rose the most in almost four years against the yen........................

 
Click Here To See The Entire Article

Recession:
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff

"US Economist Calls Financial Crisis Worst Since 1930s"-The Economic Times

Mar 19 -- The current financial crisis is the worst the world has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s and the US Federal Reserve move to cut interest rates will not make much difference, the Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on Wednesday. "It will have some impact - it will do a little bit to stem the blood - but it's not addressing the fundamental problems underlying the collapse of the financial sector..........................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 
 
"Yuan Advances to Highest Since End of Dollar Peg on Inflation" -Bloomberg
 
Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
 
"Sky-High Fuel Costs Hit Some Extra Hard" -The Seattle Times
 
Mar. 20 -  Randy Clark, a house painter from Kenmore, never fills his gas tank in Seattle, Bellevue or Issaquah. He even avoids North Bend, the last stop for eastbound drivers crossing Snoqualmie Pass. Fueling up is always a few cents cheaper a gallon in places such as Snohomish or Monroe, said Clark, a father of four who knows that when it comes to buying gas, geography matters. "They set prices for the income of the area - what people are able to pay," he said. As gas prices continue to climb, no one is feeling the sting more acutely than small-business owners such as Clark who rely on their vehicles to make deliveries or get them to far-flung work sites. Not only are they paying more at the pump, but many are getting socked by rising shipping and wholesale costs. The struggle between staying competitive and making a profit is forcing many business owners to raise prices, turn down distant jobs or find creative ways to cut gas consumption................
 
Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 
 
"Woes in Condo Market Build
As New Supply Floods Cities"
- Wall Street Journal
 

Mar. 22 -- The condominium market is about to get worse as many cities brace for a flood of new supply this year -- the result of construction started at the height of the housing boom. More than 4,000 new units will be completed in both Atlanta and Phoenix by the end of the year. Developers in Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., are readying nearly 10,000 total new units in a market already struggling with canyons of unsold condos. San Diego, another hard-hit region, will add 2,500 units, according to estimates provided by Reis Inc., a New York-based real-estate-research firm. The new building comes on top of unprecedented supply. The U.S. finished 2007 with a supply of condos large enough to absorb 10 months of demand, the highest level since the National Association of Realtors began the tally in 1999. The deluge means bad news for developers and potentially lower prices, including in cities such as Atlanta and Dallas that have avoided the worst of the housing bust. If defaults and foreclosures rise, lenders will feel the pain too .........................

Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
 
"Gold Climbs as Dollar's Drop Spurs Demand; Platinum Halts Drop"Bloomberg
 

Mar. 18 -- Gold advanced in London as the weaker dollar spurred investor demand for an alternative asset. Platinum climbed 2.4 percent, the first gain in three days. Gold for immediate delivery jumped $3.73 to $1,006.43 an ounce as of 1:22 p.m. in London. The futures traded in New York rose $4.60 to $1,007.20 an ounce.  ``People are looking for some kind of port in the storm,'' said Simon Weeks, a managing director at ScotiaMocatta, the metal-dealing unit of Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia. ``I would expect gold will outperform the other metals as people look for a safe haven. Excess cash is not going into anything speculative.''  Gold climbed to $1,032.70 an ounce yesterday, the highest ever, as investors sought cover from losses in the dollar and global equities. The currency extended its decline today on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to reduce the risk of bank failures..................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article


Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
 
"Delta To Cut 2,000 Jobs As Price Of Oil Soars"- Los Angeles Times
 

Mar. 19 --  Delta Air Lines said Tuesday that it planned this year to shed 2,000 employees, or about 4% of its workforce, as it cuts domestic flights to cope with higher costs from soaring fuel prices. Calling jet fuel costs "unprecedented, if not a crisis for this industry," Delta President Ed Bastian told New York analysts Tuesday morning that the airline also would ground about 40 planes and shift its focus to more lucrative international markets. "We're going to reduce the head count and get the cost out," Bastian said. At the same time, he added that "International diversification will be key to our long-term success." The company, which previously announced that it would trim domestic flights by 5% this year, said those cuts would be increased to 10%. The cutbacks are expected to have a modest effect on passengers at Los Angeles International Airport, where Delta is the fourth-largest carrier.

The airline had hoped to grow there by about 15% but now plans to curtail the expansion rate to about 2%, a Delta spokesman said. In all, the Atlanta-based carrier said it hoped to shed about 2,000 workers through voluntary buyouts, attrition and other initiatives. About 30,000 of the 55,044 full-time employees will be eligible for the buyout offer, the airline said. The severance program will not affect Delta pilots, who have a union contract with the company, and employees at Delta regional carrier Comair, which is based in Erlanger, Ky. Bastian said fuel costs are expected to grow by more than $2 billion this year as oil prices continue to climb. Oil recently cracked $111 a barrel -- nearly twice what it was a year ago. Earlier, United Airlines, the nation's second-largest carrier, said it also was mulling over cuts amid record fuel costs.
 
Futures Prices 
 
Todays Prices (March 22, 2008)
*Gold Futures $920/Ounce (Down)
 
Last Weeks Prices (March 15, 2008)
*Dollar Index 72.105/Basket Of Currencies 
*Gold Futures $999.5/Ounce 
* Crude Oil $110.21/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 3.0%
Federal Discount Rate 3.5%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.95%
 
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Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353


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