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Phil De Carolis-Prudential California Realty

Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: March 29, 2008

Need To Sell NOW? Want Advice On Buying? Looking For Bank Owned Properties? Or If You Just Need Information Visit www.PhilDeCarolis.com

Press Release
 Peter Schiff On Cashin In Saturday March 22, 2008 (5:44 mins)
 Click On The Image Below To Watch This Peter Schiff Interview
 
Is Your Money Safe At Your Local Bank?
Peter Schiff On Cashin In March 22, 2008 
"Nobody's money is safe as long as Ben Bernanke is FED chairman. If your bank or your brokerage goes under and the government gives you your dollars back, they are not going to give you your purchasing power back" -Peter Schiff
 
Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"Bail me out Bennie"

 
Friday March 28, 2008

By Economist Peter Schiff                                                                                       

 Peter Schiff & I In Newport Beach, CA March 24, 2008

Now that the Fed and the Treasury Department have clumsily come to the rescue of the financial titans of Wall Street, it is now politically dangerous to resist similar pleas from just about everybody else. Populism is emerging as a dominant theme is this election year, and with so much largesse showered on Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase, politicians are demanding even more generous terms for consumers. In Washington, it seems that two wrongs apparently make a right. Another downside to corporate bailouts is that they provide the critics of free market capitalism with plenty of excuses to weigh down American economic vitality with even more unnecessary regulation.

In the first place, the current mess did not result from a failure of the free market, but from too much government interference. The real estate bubble, and the shaky securitized products it spawned, resulted from the Fed artificially setting interest rates too low. Had interest rates been allowed to find their market levels, rather than be set by government decree, the real estate bubble never would have been inflated in the first place.

In a nation short on savings and heavy with debt, the free market would naturally set interest rates quite high. With lots of demand for credit, but a limited supply of savings, the risk of lending and therefore the price of credit (interest rates) would be high. Although onerous to borrowers, high rates would have both encouraged saving and discouraged borrowing. In the end, these market forces would reduce interest rates and produce a more stable balance between savings and consumption. However, the Fed did not want American consumers to be subjected to free market discipline that might otherwise reign in their non-stop spending. After all, reckless consumption was falsely believed to be the engine of our prosperity.

So the Fed fixed the price of credit (interest rates) well below the rate that would have been set by the free market. This sent false economic signals to the market that more savings were available than actually existed, leading to an over-investment in housing. Also, by keeping the rate of interest below the rate of inflation, rampant speculation was encouraged, and the foundation was laid for the very type of mortgage financing that has now come back to bite us.

In the second place, no one on Wall Street should be bailed out. The effects of the bursting of the housing bubble should be dealt with by the market, despite the fact that the underlying bubble itself was a byproduct of government intervention.

Apart from the problems created by interfering with the market's attempts to restore balance and reallocate resources, bailouts create all sorts of moral hazards. After all, why should bailouts be limited to investment banks or overstretched homeowners? What about renters who also borrowed too much money? What about those behind on their credit cards, auto or student loans? Why shouldn't they get bailed out? How about small entrepreneurs whose start-up businesses failed -- should they get bailed out as well?

In market economies all sorts of people lose money, sometimes as a result of circumstances entirely beyond their control. While this is clearly not the case for most homeowners and mortgage lenders, some would obviously fall within that category. However, it is not up to government to rescue them. Even if some borrowers and lenders were lead astray by the false economic signals sent by the Fed, they are never-the-less responsible for any losses they might have incurred as a result of following them. The real danger is that while government interference is actually at fault, it's the free-market that ends up taking the blame.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
 
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
Click The Icon To Listen To The March 26, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
 
Wall Street Unspun

The Norris Group Real Estate Radio ShowBruce Norris
 
March 29, 2008 Part 1
Bruce Norris is joined this week by auction legend, co-founder of Williams and Williams Auctions, and current president of the National Auctioneers Association, Tommy Williams. Bruce and Tommy discuss how Tommy got involved in auctions and his family's history in the auction business since the 1800s, how the tradition continues in the family, how Williams and Williams auctions are set up, the team members that make auctions possible, on-the-front-yard auctions, why Williams and Williams chooses not to pursue ballroom auctions, why auctions on the lawn helps obtain true market value, dealing with surprises during live auctions, how bad weather actually makes for a better auction, how long the process takes and how efficient the process has become, how government-backed banks are harder to deal with than private institutions, the readiness of Williams and Williams to grow as the market changes, the different types of auctions and which Williams and Williams chooses to use, how a seller is more willing to change what they will take for a property on auction day, true market value and how auctions show the seller the truth, if sellers today are more willing to accept lower offers, why it's important to have the seller present at auction, problems with old appraisals, shill bidding in current California auctions, when shill bidding is acceptable and what auctioneers should be doing if it's a practice they choose to pursue, how some states have licensing laws and other's do not, Tommy's thoughts on shill bidding, the stigma to builders considering auction, what any seller will need to consider when considering the real estate auction process, the difference between a loved home and an unloved home, auctions during the peak of a boom and how sellers could see even more gains, the marketplace tells the truth, and finally, http://williamsauction.com.
 
 
The Norris Group Radio Show
 
 
Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff

"Fed Policy Makers Voice Concern Over U.S. Economy"- Rueters

Mar 28 -- The U.S. economy could be slipping into recession and the Federal Reserve must cushion the pain, a top Fed policy maker said Thursday in remarks supporting hopes for more interest rate cuts. Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed, was one of six U.S. central bankers speaking on Thursday after government data confirmed anemic growth in the fourth quarter, which analysts say has since slowed further. "It's clear the economy is in a slowdown that resembles past periods that were the leading edge of a recession," Lockhart told a Rotary Club meeting in Chattanooga, Tennessee. "I believe that an important policy objective at this juncture is to ensure that this slowdown is short and shallow." The Fed last week slashed benchmark lending rates by three-quarters of a percentage point to a three-year low of 2.25 percent, in addition to the other measures it has introduced to keep money flowing in markets. Investors think it will trim rates by another 50 basis points at its next scheduled policy meeting, on April 29-30.........................

 
Click Here To See The Entire Article

Recession:
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff

"Economy Slows To Crawl"-The Charlotte Observer

Mar 28 -- The economy nearly sputtered out at the end of the year and is probably faring even worse now amid continuing housing, credit and financial crises. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product increased at a feeble 0.6 percent annual rate in the October-to-December quarter. The reading -- unchanged from a previous estimate a month ago -- provided stark evidence of just how much the economy has weakened. In the prior quarter, the economy clocked in at a sizzling 4.9 percent growth rate. The gross domestic product, or GDP, measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic health. Many economists say they believe growth in the current January-to-March quarter will be even weaker than the 0.6 percent figure of the previous quarter. A growing number also say the economy may actually be shrinking now. Under one rough rule, the economy needs to contract for six straight months to be considered in a recession. The government will release its estimate for first-quarter GDP in late April. "The economy just kept its head above water" in the fourth quarter, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight. "We think that GDP will decline, albeit slightly, during the first half of 2008," he said. "The first half outlook is bleak...........................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 
 
"Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Against Euro in a Month" -Bloomberg
 
Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
 
"Is Your Grocery Bill Going Up? You're Not Alone" -MSNBC
 
Mar. 24 -  If you're seeing your grocery bill go up, you're not alone. From subsistence farmers eating rice in Ecuador to gourmets feasting on escargot in France, consumers worldwide face rising food prices in what analysts call a perfect storm of conditions. Freak weather is a factor. But so are dramatic changes in the global economy, including higher oil prices, lower food reserves and growing consumer demand in China and India. The world's poorest nations still harbor the greatest hunger risk. Clashes over bread in Egypt killed at least two people last week, and similar food riots broke out in Burkina Faso and Cameroon this month.................
 
Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 
 
"Home Prices Unlikely To Rise Till 2010"The Seattle Times
 

Mar. 28 -- U.S. home prices are unlikely to recover until at least 2010, one of the nation's top housing economists said Thursday, adding that homebuilding this year is expected to post its worst year in five decades. Speaking to the National Economists Club, Frank Nothaft, the chief economist for government-sponsored mortgage buyer Freddie Mac, painted a grim picture. Through the final three months of 2007, he said, sales of existing homes fell 29 percent from the same period two years earlier. Forty-six states had falling prices in the fourth quarter, and prices nationwide were down 9.3 percent. In the Pacific region, which saw the steepest drop, prices fell an average 17.2 percent. "I don't think we're going to see any improvement in the national house-price matrix until 2010," said Nothaft. He projected a 16 percent drop in mortgage originations this year for new home loans and refinancing. He expects foreclosures, which rose by about 1.5 million in 2007, to rise further. If there was any good news, it came from a bit of really bad news. The economist expects new single-family-home starts this year will be the lowest in 50 years. What's good about that? The plunge means fewer homes will come onto the market, helping reduce the supply of unsold new and existing homes. By late this year or early next year, life should be returning to the national housing market, but prices won't see significant recovery until 2010, Nothaft said. .........................

Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
 
"Gold Rises, Leading Other Metals Higher, After Dollar Declines"Bloomberg
 

Mar. 26 -- Gold, silver and platinum rose in London as the dollar's decline against currencies including the euro spurred demand for precious metals as a hedge against further declines in the U.S. currency. The dollar fell against the euro after an industry survey showed German business confidence unexpectedly rose this month. Gold has climbed 14 percent this year, rising to a record $1,032.70 an ounce last week as the dollar declined...................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article


Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
 
"Oil Hits $108 On Pipeline Blast"- BBC News
 

Mar. 27 --  A company official said damage would cut Basra's exports by a third, adding to supply fears and increasing concern about stability in the region. The rise extended Wednesday's gains of $4 a barrel after a US report showed lower-than-expected petrol stocks. A sharp sell-off of all commodities last week took oil below $100 after investors cashed in their gains. The price of New York light sweet crude oil closed at $107.58 dollars per barrel having hit $108.22 dollars.............

 
Futures Prices 
 
Todays Prices (March 29, 2008)
*Gold Futures $930.6/Ounce (Up)
 
Last Weeks Prices (March 22, 2008)
*Dollar Index 73.23/Basket Of Currencies 
*Gold Futures $920/Ounce 
* Crude Oil $101.84/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 2.25%
Federal Discount Rate 2.5%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.62%
 
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at
Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353


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