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Phil De Carolis-Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: March 8, 2008
Need To Sell NOW? Want Advice On Buying? Just Need Information? www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Press Release
In this interview during August 2006, Peter Schiff predicts the bursting of the housing bubble, the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, the credit crisis, tightening lending standards, waves of defaults, bankruptcies and foreclosures, weakness in financials, retailers and homebuilders, stagflation, surging gold, oil and other commodity prices, soaring federal budget deficits and a collapse in the value of the U.S. dollar
     
Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Company August 28, 2006 
Click On The Image Above To Watch Peter Schiff Debate Arthur Laffer
Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Company Monday Aug 28, 2006 (8:15 mins)
 
 
 
 "Americans are seeing their wealth evaporate including the value of their wages and the value of their savings. There is a cost to all of this easy money and low interest rates and that cost includes higher food prices and higher gasoline prices."- Peter Schiff
     
Peter Schiff On The Glenn Beck Show March 5, 2008 
Click On The Image Above To Watch
Peter Schiff On The Glenn Beck Show Wednesday Mar 5, 2008 (5:15 mins)
 
 
Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"They Still Don't Get It"

 
Friday March 7, 2008

By Economist Peter Schiff                                                                                       

 Peter Schiff

Prior to my last appearance on CNBC in October 2007, I had made more than 50 appearances on the network over the prior two years. In those segments, I repeatedly exposed the superficiality of our prosperity, described the American economy as a "house of cards", pointed out that borrowing and spending were a ticking time bomb rather than a viable plan for long term economic health, and explained how investors could prepare for the tough times ahead. At the time, those forecasts were met with ridicule and led to my being nicknamed "Dr. Doom". Now that these predictions have come to pass, most on CNBC now claim that no one saw it coming!

In my 2006 and 2007 on-air appearances, to a chorus of sneers and laughter, I predicted the bursting of the housing bubble, the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, the credit crisis, tightening lending standards, waves of defaults, bankruptcies and foreclosures, weakness in financials, retailers and homebuilders, stagflation, surging gold, oil and other commodity prices, soaring federal budget deficits and a collapse in the value of the U.S. dollar. You would have thought that some of the reasons I gave for making those predictions would now be given some credence. They have not.

The current line at CNBC is that, prior to the "unexpected" contagion emanating from the subprime mess the U.S. economy was experiencing a "Goldilocks" era of optimal health. They now believe that if the Fed and the Government can divine the right combination of fiscal and monetary policy, Goldilocks will once again be blissfully picking daisies... or more precisely, buying SUV's. Unfortunately, as I said then, Goldilocks was, and still is, a fairy tale. In fact, the unfolding economic disaster is a direct consequence of the misguided faith placed in that absurdly optimistic parable. And since they were incapable of diagnosing the disease, is it any wonder that their cures are completely ineffective?

This lack of understanding is further confirmed by the skepticism with which the mainstream financial community still regards my diagnosis. For example, in a Feb 22, 2008 article in TheStreet.com, entitled "Dr. Doom Zeros in on Inflation", Mike Holland, a CNBC regular leveled two common criticisms often used to discredit me. Holland says "investors who listened to Schiff throughout the recent bull market missed out on some attractive returns in the stock market" and "A broken clock is right twice a day. If you say things are going to be bad long enough, eventually you're going to be right."

What attractive returns does Holland think my clients missed out on? Those who followed my advice invested in foreign stocks, bonds and currencies, as well as precious metals, oil and other commodities. Investors who listened to me instead enjoyed much greater returns by participating in the real bull markets. It's amazing how few people have managed to figure this out!

The "stopped clock" analogy is one I have been dealing with for years. Those using it maintain that my early warnings invalidate my forecasts. It is precisely because my warnings were so early that they were so valuable to investors. In addition, such charges assume that the current downturn is unrelated to those warnings and that my critique of the U.S. economy was inaccurate until now. My critics, the real stopped clocks, still do not understand that the phony prosperity they were defending and that I was challenging lies at the root of the current crises. When the bubble was still inflating it is understandable that those trapped inside viewed me as a stopped clock. However, now that it has burst, it is amazing how many still cannot get the soap out of their eyes.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."

Click The Icon To Listen To The March 5, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
 
Wall Street Unspun

The Norris Group Real Estate Radio ShowBruce Norris
 
March 8, 2008- Part 1
Bruce Norris is joined by short sales expert and President of the Short Sale Processor, Nicholas Manfredi. Bruce and Nick discuss how hard prices have been hit in the Inland Empire, different ways to evaluate homes, why Nick likes Corona as an investment area, what areas of the housing market are safe, inflation and interest rates and their effect on investment decisions, percentage of homes in Corona in a negative equity position, what conversations are like with current sellers, the journey of someone facing potential foreclosure and the option of a short sale, California and a possible depression, rent drops in the Inland Empire, the choices for someone in default, what some home owners have been spending per month on a home payment, the willingness for lenders to really help people to save their home, misconceptions on short sales, Realtors and the misunderstanding of taxation and debt relief, the Debt Relief Act of 2008, if you need to be licensed to do short sales, retail value and short sales, working with a Realtor who understands the process, reasons why lenders decline short sales, the MERS system, lenders position on borrower being behind before short sale consideration, how to attract people to short sales if not through mailers, how the Short Sale Processor works, the money to be made by helping sellers and lenders, how brokers can make just as much money with short sales as they can with a regular transaction, and finally, TheShortSaleProcessor.com
 
 
The Norris Group Radio Show
 
 
Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff

"Dollar Falls On Bets Fed Will Lower Rate 0.75-Point"- Bloomberg

Mar 4 -- The dollar fell for a sixth day against the yen and traded near a record low versus the euro as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.75 percentage point this month.  The dollar index, which compares the currency to those of six trading partners, declined as futures showed a 76 percent likelihood the Fed will reduce rates to 2.25 percent. Last week, traders saw no chance of a cut that steep. The Australian dollar dropped as central bank as central bank Governor Glenn Stevens signaled interest rates may have peaked after today's increase.  ``Don't fight the dollar weakness,'' a team of strategists at Zurich-based UBS AG, led by Mansoor Mohi-uddin, wrote in a research report published today. This week's U.S. data ``will likely increasingly suggest a recession......................

 
Click Here To See The Entire Article
Recession
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff
 
"Buffett Says U.S. In Recession"-Rueters

Mar 3 -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Monday the U.S. economy is in recession and that stocks are "not cheap" despite recent declines. Buffett also said he is no longer offering to guarantee $800 billion of municipal bonds backed by MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and FGIC Corp, three bond insurers that ran into trouble from also backing riskier debt. Speaking on CNBC television, Buffett said the economy is heading south even though gross domestic product has not yet fallen for two straight quarters, a definition many economists use to identify a recession. Buffett also said the slowing economy and the housing slump are hurting his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (BRKb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) insurance and investment company, whose 76 operating units sell such things as bricks, carpeting, ice cream, paint, real estate brokerage services and underwear.........................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 
 
"Dollar Slides Through New Record Lows Vs Euro" -The Guardian
 
Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
 
"Rising Wheat Prices Have Far-Reaching Significance" -The Houston Chronicle
 
Mar. 1 -  Wheat is acting like the new oil. On Wednesday, contracts for May delivery reached a record of $13.50 on the Chicago Board of Trade. Though prices retreated at week's end, the world's pre-eminent grain rose more than 25 percent last month, the biggest such increase since 1973, according to Bloomberg News. Like oil, wheat prices are being driven by global demand, a shortage of supply and a weak dollar. Call it flaxen gold. Also like oil, higher prices for wheat and other edible commodities can rattle our already shaky economy. Food is the forgotten component of inflation. When economists tally the indicators, they tend to focus on "core" inflation, which ignores the costs of food and energy. These days, the concept of core inflation seems more like an academic curiosity, a theory decoupled from reality...............
 
Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 
 
"Spring Housing Market Likely To Be Flush With Inventory, Sinking Prices"- Chicago Tribune
 

Mar. 7 -- What this real estate market needs is a buyer of last resort, and until it went broke last month, Sirva Inc. thought it could fill the bill. As housing sales ground to a halt last year, the Westmont-based parent of Allied Van Lines was busy buying unsold homes under agreements it made with its moving and relocation clients. It owned 532 by the end of June, 799 by the end of September and, as of Jan. 11, Sirva had piled up 1,236 houses, with a monthly carrying cost of $3 million. Its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing came Feb. 5. Now the rest of the residential market could be feeling the same pain, as troubles align to make the coming spring selling season among the most difficult in memory. An entire year's worth of homes could be sitting on the market in the months ahead, putting inventories at their highest levels since the recession of the early 1980s, some forecasters predict.......................

Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
 
"When Gold Breaks Above $1,000, Then What?"Rueters
 

Mar. 6 -- Should the the price of gold burst through the $1,000-per-ounce barrier, which it nearly did on Wednesday, experts predict it could reach higher records and even double this year. "We could see gold spike this year and hit $1,500," said Jay Taylor, who produces an investor newsletter, Gold & Technology Stocks. "Gold has a shot at $1,200 or even $1,500 this year and ultimately will go a lot higher," said Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Connecticut. Peter Spina, who runs goldseek.com, a gold investor web site, said of the surge: "It's mostly institutional investors now, but we are seeing more enthusiasm and $1,500-$2,000 gold in the next 12 months is definitely possible. "On Wednesday, gold rose to a record high $995.20 an ounce in the April futures contract. Inflation fears due to sharply higher crude oil prices and a government report showing a rise in labor costs fueled the advance before profit taking cut into values. The contract settled at $988.50, a gain of $22.20 on the day. It was less than two years ago, in April 2006, that gold bullion nudged above $600 for the first time in a quarter century. It had hit $850 in 1980, which if adjusted for inflation would be approximately $2,000 now................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article


Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
 
"Oil Hits New Record Above $106"- Report On Business
 

Mar. 7 --  Oil prices jumped to a new record above $106 (U.S.) Friday but settled lower, extending their recent pattern of choppy trading after a weak U.S. jobs report convinced many traders that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting campaign will continue. Employers cut 63,000 jobs in February, the biggest drop in five years, the Labour Department said. Investors can react to such news in one of two ways: by selling on the prospect that the economy, and demand for oil, is cooling, or by buying on a conviction that bad economic data makes it more likely the Fed will cut rates. On Friday, investors engaged in a little of both, sending oil prices down more than $1 at one moment, and propelling them to new records the next. "The higher the market goes, the more volatile it becomes," said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN in Omaha, Neb. "Does it mean that the rally is over? No."...................

Futures Prices 
 
Todays Prices (March 8, 2008)
*Gold Futures $974.2/Ounce (Down)
 
Last Weeks Prices (March 1, 2008)
*Dollar Index 73.75/Basket Of Currencies 
*Gold Futures $975/Ounce 
* Crude Oil $101.84/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 3.0%
Federal Discount Rate 3.5%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.88%
 
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at
Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353


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