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Phil De Carolis
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Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: May 10, 2008
Need To Sell NOW? Need To Buy? Looking For Cash Flowing Bank Owned Properties In Southern California? Or If You Just Need Information Visit www.PhilDeCarolis.com
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Press Release |
Peter Schiff On FOX Business News Tuesday May 7, 2008 (6:08 mins)
Click On The Image Below To Watch This Peter Schiff Interview
Weak U.S. Dollar Driving Gold Up
THIS IS A VIDEO THAT YOU NEED TO WATCH!!
"I started buying gold stocks for myself and my clients in 1999 when gold was just under $300/ounce.....Gold is usually at a 10-1 ratio with oil and since we have $120/barrel oil, gold should reach $1,200/ounce before the end of 2008. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will go bankrupt unless the FED creates a substantial amount of inflation to prop up the housing market, and so, the only way these companies won't go bankrupt is if the FED creates so much inflation that gold may end up at $5,000/ounce" -Peter Schiff
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Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"The Ticking Credit Card Time Bomb"
Friday May 9, 2008
By Economist Peter Schiff

For those holding out hope that the American economy can miraculously avoid a long and deep recession consumer credit is often viewed as the wonder drug that can cure all manner of economic ills. As such, this week's report showing $15 billion growth in consumer credit was widely heralded as proof of America's economic strength and resilience. However, we are now suffering the after effects of too much debt, and our salvation cannot be found in more of the same.
Credit card debt, which now stands at whopping $957 billion nationally (approximately $3,000 for every citizen) has, in recent years taken on a different role in American life. While in the past credit cards were used primarily to purchase big ticket items, spreading out costs over many months, they are now increasingly used to bridge the gap between cost of living and the diminishing purchasing power of Americans who have been taxed mercilessly by inflation. By buying with available credit instead of unavailable cash, consumers are not simply postponing the pain of higher prices, but compounding it by adding interest to the cost of everyday purchases. In addition, as home equity credit is now unavailable to fund large purchases, many consumers are turning to non-deductible, higher cost credit card debt as the last remaining life line. As such, credit card debt compounds steadily, and for many borrowers, becomes increasingly impossible to pay down.
The statistics tell the tale. According to Equifax, a credit card analysis firm, people have been buying more with their credit cards but paying down less. As a result average balances jumped nearly 9% in 2007 and delinquency rates recently hit a 4-year high of 4.5%.
Also, the reliance on credit cards is preventing some of the markets salutary forces from working. With credit always an option, domestic demand remains strong despite rising prices. Absent the option of putting more costly gasoline on their credit cards, Americans might have actually been forced to cut back on their consumption, taking some of the upward pressure off gas prices.
It should be painfully obvious that expanded consumer credit is not evidence of improvement, but simply, deterioration. Unfortunately, when it comes to understanding the economy, there is little common sense on display. By going even deeper into debt just to make ends meet, American consumers are digging themselves, and our entire economy, into an even greater economic hole and laying the foundation for the next major credit debacle. It's fitting that just as both Treasury Secretary Paulson and JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon declared that the worst of the crisis has past, we are on the verge of kicking the whole thing into a much higher gear!
My guess is that many Americas continue to run up massive credit card debt because they have little intention of every paying it off. Since many who are underwater on the home loans, and behind on the auto and student loans see bankruptcy as a foregone conclusion, they see no downside to pilling on as much debt as possible while the taps remain open.
Those choking on credit card debt may also be taking cheer from the gathering government campaign to bail out over-leveraged homeowners. The sheer numbers of who are afflicted with spiraling monthly payments will make credit card relief a potent political issue for crusading Congressman and Presidential candidates. After all, there are few fundamental differences between those who borrowed too much to buy houses and those who made the same mistake with consumer goods. If the government bails out the former why not the latter? In fact, one reason some homeowners have such large mortgages is that they consolidated their credit card debts into their mortgages each time they refinanced. Why should renters be forced to pay off their credit card debts while homeowners have theirs forgiven?
Soon, as credit card delinquencies rise and losses on pools of securitized credit card debt mount, those supplying the credit will finally get wise to the fact they will never get their money back. As a result the market for such debt will dry up even more quickly than did the market for subprime mortgages. Cards will therefore be much harder to come by and will have much lower limits then they do today. Limited to only the cash in their wallets, Americans will finally be forced to dramatically curtail their spending, and the recession will finally gather serious momentum.
For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
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Click The Icon To Listen To The May 7, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
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The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show
May 10, 2008
Bruce Norris is joined this week by investor, creative real practitioner and educator, and author, Bill Gatten. Bruce and Bill discuss how long the concept of holding title in a trust been around, why it was created, the mid-70s and interest rates and problems with lenders, why we didn't have huge price changes in 80s, creative financing, Garn- St Germain Depository Institutions Act in 1982, how it limited lenders on foreclosing, the living revocable trust, due on sale violations, the inter vivos trust, fee simple bundle of rights, the phase of acceptance for new ideas and where the living trust currently resides, how a living trust is structured, asset protection under the trust concept, the percentage of lawyers who understand the trust concept and how even fewer understand the land trust, the different Realtor groups that have made great use of the land trust in Southern California, creating options for the seller, if changing interest rates changes the strategy, problems with using a lease option, problems with contract for deeds, the steps in a transaction where using a land trust is appropriate, why it's best for the seller not to remain in the property when using this transaction, the players in a trust transaction and who holds the power, the trustee, the settlor, the beneficiary, why a corporate trustee is important, and finally, landtrust.net.
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Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff
"Hoenig Says Inflation `Serious,' May Prompt Rate Rise"- Bloomberg
May 7 -- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said ``serious'' inflation pressures may compel the central bank to increase interest rates. The dollar rose against the euro. ``There is a significant risk that higher inflation will become embedded in the economy and require significant monetary policy tightening to reduce it,'' Hoenig said yesterday in the prepared text of a speech in Denver. Consumers are gaining an ``inflation psychology to an extent that I have not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s,'' he said..............................
Click Here To See The Entire Article
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Recession:
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff
"Bankruptcies And Defaults Gather Pace"- Financial Times
May 8 -- The number of companies defaulting on their junk-rated debt and filing for bankruptcy in North America is running at its fastest pace in five years amid the slowing economy and contraction in credit markets. So far this year, 28 "entities" have defaulted, according to Standard & Poor's. The defaulted debt of the one Canadian and 27 US companies totals $18.4bn and exceeds the 17 defaults in the US for all of last year. "As economic conditions deteriorated...and volatility in the financial markets protracted, corporate casualties began to emerge at a rate unseen in years," said Diane Vazza, head of S&P's Global Fixed Income Research Group. "The surge of defaults in the early months of 2008 is the first leg of an extended period of high default occurrences that will characterise the rest of 2008 and 2009."S&P said the pace of US defaults in the first five months of the year is the fastest since 2003...............................
Click On This Link To View The Entire Article |
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Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff
"Oil Climbs Above $126 To Record As Dollar Weakens Against Euro" - Bloomberg
May 9 -- Crude oil rose above $126 a barrel in New York to a record as the dollar weakened against the euro, prompting investors to buy commodities as a hedge against the currency's decline. For a fifth day oil climbed to all-time highs as the euro strengthened on signs the European Central Bank will keep rates at a six-year high to cut inflation. Nigerian output fell to the lowest this decade in April because of a strike and attacks on oil installations. ``Oil is a safe haven because of the weak dollar and how badly the financial sector has been doing,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``There are also geopolitical concerns about places like Nigeria and Venezuela that are propping prices up.'' Crude oil for June delivery rose $2.27, or 1.8 percent, to a record closing price of $125.96 a barrel at 2:55 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract surged to $126.27 today, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. Prices are up 8.3 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain in more than a year. Futures have more than doubled in the past year..............................
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Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
"Former FOMC Member Warns On Inflation" -Financial Times
May 7 - The Federal Reserve must reverse course and start raising interest rates within the next few quarters to head off the near-certainty of rising inflation, according to a former member of the Fed's rate-setting panel, the FOMC. William Poole, who retired at the end of March as head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, said allowing inflation to bail out homeowners and the mortgage market was one of three options open to policymakers as they confront the growing mortgage crisis in the US. However, he said it was the choice that he feared most."If the Fed is unwilling to reverse its excessively expansionary policy in the next few quarters, which is my take on likely policy, the Fed almost guarantees higher inflation," he said.....................
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(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff
"How Low Will Real Estate Go?"- Los Angeles Times
May 5 -- Though the national real estate market remains bleak--in some neighborhoods vacant homes outnumber those that are occupied and sellers are being forced to lower asking prices in a bid to lure bargain hunters--it's assumed that when housing dips to a point where buyers think it represents a bargain, they'll buy back in. The problem is many of the markets that experienced steep 2007 price drops are still a long way from recovery. That's based on a Moody's Economy.com report prepared for Forbes.com. It predicts that 2008 isn't going to be any gentler than last year on slumping markets like Los Angeles, Sacramento, Calif., Las Vegas and Tampa, Fla., where market weakness is expected to cause 10% to 25% drops over the next year. That's based on a Moody's Economy.com report prepared for Forbes.com.................
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Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
"Gold Futures Gain On Demand For Inflation Hedge; Silver Rises"- Bloomberg
May 9 -- Gold rose in New York, capping the biggest weekly gain since February, on speculation a weaker dollar and rising energy costs will boost investor demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude-oil futures reached $126.20 a barrel today, setting a record for the fifth straight session, and the dollar headed for a weekly loss against the euro. Gold has underperformed oil and the euro since reaching a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when investors bought the metal as a haven against turmoil in financial markets........................
Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
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Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
"Sugar Rises In New York As Crude Oil Gains, Dollar Declines"- Bloomberg
May 9 -- Sugar rose, heading for a weekly gain, on bets record crude oil prices may spur greater use of ethanol made from sugar cane and the weaker dollar will increase investor demand for commodities traded in New York. Crude oil reached a record $126.20 a barrel while gasoline reached $3.2011 a gallon in New York today. An index measuring the value of the dollar against six counterparts fell as much as 0.6 percent, making commodities traded in New York cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. ``The dollar, crude oil and commodities'' are supporting sugar, said Michael McDougall, senior vice president for Newedge USA LLC in New York. Record crude oil ``brings in investor interest into commodities, and sugar is a beneficiary. Sugar because of the energy link should attract more interest.''
Sugar futures for July delivery rose 0.29 cent, or 2.5 percent, to 11.75 cents a pound at 9:17 a.m. on ICE Futures U.S., the former New York Board of Trade. A close at that price would lead to a weekly gain of 2.3 percent, after two consecutive weeks of losses. The price of most-active futures is down 24 percent through yesterday from a 19-month high on March 3, partly on forecasts for a record Brazilian sugar cane crop and a global surplus. The center-south region of Brazil, the world's biggest sugar producer, may harvest a record cane crop of 498.1 million metric tons, the sugar cane industry group in Sao Paulo known as Unica said April 17. Mills may use 58 percent of the crop to make ethanol, up from 56 percent last year, Unica forecast. The London-based International Sugar Organization May 7 said the global surplus for the year ending Sept. 30 will be 7.8 million metric tons, down from 9.3 million tons forecast in February..................
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Futures Prices
Todays Prices (May 10, 2008)
*Gold Futures $885/Ounce (Up)
Last Weeks Prices (May 3, 2008)
*Dollar Index 73.69/Basket Of Currencies
*Gold Futures $858/Ounce
* Crude Oil $116.32/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 2.00%
Federal Discount Rate 2.2.25%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.72%
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
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| Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com |
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| Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353
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