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Phil De Carolis-Prudential California Realty

Phil De Carolis' Weekly Update: May 17, 2008

Need To Sell NOW? Need To Buy? Looking For Cash Flowing Bank Owned Properties In Southern California? Or If You Just Need Information Visit www.PhilDeCarolis.com 

Press Release
Click On The Image Below To Watch This Video
 
The Day The Dollar Sets (10:22 mins)
The Day The Dollar Sets - Video 
"Americans are going to have to stop spending and start saving. We are going to have to stop consuming and start producing. Of course, that transition involves a very significant recession and nobody wants that. Instead, everybody is trying to postpone it but all they're doing is assuring us that the recession will be that much more severe because the imbalances are getting wider which means it is going to take more sacrifice to correct them." -Peter Schiff
 
Peter Schiffs' Economic Commentary
"China's Simple Solution"


 
Friday May 16, 2008

By Economist Peter Schiff                                                                                       

 Peter Schiff & I

 As China grapples with the consequences of its devastating earthquake, it has also begun to finally confront the destabilizing forces bubbling up beneath its economic landscape. This week, several key Chinese officials, typically not known for their candor, conspicuously noted the need to both stimulate domestic consumer spending and bring down roaring inflation. While at first blush these two goals might appear mutually exclusive, China's leaders do have a magic bullet that can hit both targets at once.

A stronger currency, commensurate with China's increased economic strength, will both tamp down inflation and allow Chinese consumers to buy more goods and services. However, for reasons not entirely clear to me, or few others for that matter, China's leaders are resisting this simple and beneficial solution.

The Chinese leadership's stated goal in prodding their citizens to spend more is to decrease their economy's dependence on exports. If the Chinese, who currently save 50% of their incomes, saved less, more of their production would be consumed locally. As a result, China would be less vulnerable to economic downturns abroad. Without a vibrant domestic market, over-leveraged Americans will apparently remain China's most important customers.

A strengthened Yuan would lower the real costs of goods for domestic consumers and allow the Chinese themselves to compete more evenly with consumers in other nations to whom they currently send the fruits of their labor. As goods become more affordable in China, the Chinese will naturally consume more. A rising Yuan would therefore kill two birds with one stone: it would reverse recent consumer price increases and it would induce Chinese consumers to buy their own products.

If the Chinese were to follow such a sensible path, the consequences here in America would be immediate and severe. By allowing their currency to appreciate, Chinese monetary authorities would no longer need to buy and remove as many dollars from the open market, producing an immediate reduction in the demand for U.S. Treasuries, mortgage backed securities and other U.S. dollar denominated debt. The result in America would be a simultaneous increase in both consumer prices and interest rates. Such developments would only compound the problems already rippling through our economy.

To spur domestic spending absent such currency rebalancing, Beijing must instead rely on the nominative, simulative effects of inflation. By further expanding their money supply and allowing those increases to be passed on to workers in the form of higher wages, Chinese consumers will have more Yuan to spend and hence will buy more. However, such a policy will only solve one problem by aggravating the other.

Further, by penalizing savers through the erosive effects of inflation, China would discourage savings and jeopardize one of the true sources of its rising living standards. Contrary to the economic hocus pocus propagated on Wall Street, Washington and at American universities; economies grow not as a result of consumer spending, but as a result of savings. Under consumption is the true source of prosperity as it engenders capital formation, which lies at the root of sustainable economic growth.

Here too the implications for Americans are dire. In effect, by only spending half of their incomes and lending much of the rest to us, Americans have merely been enjoying the current consumption that more frugal Chinese consumers have decided to defer. As the Chinese consume more, Americans will simply be forced to consume less.

Low prices and rich consumers are a potent concoction that is sure to soothe China's roaring economy while raising the living standards of its hard working citizens. It's a simple solution that only an economist can miss.

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."  
Click Here To Visit Peter Schiffs' Website
Click The Icon To Listen To The May 14, 2008 Installment Of Wall Street Unspun With Host Peter Schiff
 
Wall Street Unspun

The Norris Group Real Estate Radio ShowBruce Norris
 
May 17, 2008
Bruce Norris is once again joined by investor, creative real practitioner and educator, and author, Bill Gatten. Bruce and Bill discuss investors who are new to a downturn and how they are currently reacting, what Bruce thinks the market might look like in 2010-2011, non-inclusive options, difference between an Illinois land trust and the Pac Land Trust, options of selling in non-traditional fashions, creative financing and different issues, due on sale clause, how the Pac Trust avoids the due on sale clause, Garn- St Germain act and the rules, percentage the beneficiary needs to retain for tax and insurance reasons, insurance in the land trust transaction, what is negotiated in the land trust transaction, what sellers typically want when they call off an ad, taxes with a land trust, running "I buy houses" ad in the current market, who are the people who make up those phone calls, profit centers when using the land trust, Bill Gatten working with builders in the current market, helping builders that have no other options, lenders that don't understand the Pac Trust, how Bill deals with lenders that tries to implement the due on sale clause, and finally, Landtrust.net.
 
 
The Norris Group Radio Show
 
 
Interest Rate Cuts
(Sep 18, 2007)- "A Fed bailout in the form of rate cuts will neither prevent the recession nor keep house prices from collapsing. It may slow the process down a few quarters, but it will cost us dearly" -Peter Schiff

"Troubled By Bubbles: Central Bankers Re-Examine The Hands-Off Approach"-  Financial Times

May 15 -- In the aftermath of the dotcom crash in 2002, Alan Greenspan famously argued that central banks had little power to stop bubbles inflating and then bursting. All policymakers could do, said the then Federal Reserve chairman, was to "focus on policies to mitigate the fallout when it occurs". His most vocal supporter was Ben Bernanke, then a Fed governor. As an academic, Mr Bernanke had championed the view that central banks should ignore asset prices except insofar as they affect forecasts for inflation and growth. "Even putting aside the great difficulty of identifying bubbles in asset prices, monetary policy cannot be directed finely enough to guide asset prices without risking severe collateral damage," he said in 2002.
Mr Bernanke added a caveat: central banks could use regulation to reduce the incidence of bubbles and minimise the threat they pose. But this argument was never embraced by Mr Greenspan, who had little faith in the ability of regulators to prevent crises...............................

 
Click Here To See The Entire Article

Recession:
(Sep 19,2007)- "We borrowed trillions of dollars to remodel our kitchens, buy SUVs and plasma TVs, and there are consequences. We are in serious trouble. The piper has to be paid" -Peter Schiff

"Economic 'Misery' More Widespread"- CNN Money

May 14 -- Americans are feeling a lot more economic pain than the government's official statistics would lead you to believe, according to a growing number of experts. They argue that figures for unemployment and inflation are being understated by the government.
Unemployment and inflation are typically added together to come up with a so-called "Misery Index." The "Misery Index" was often cited during periods of high unemployment and inflation, such as the mid 1970s and late 1970s to early 1980s. And some fear the economy may be approaching those levels again. The official numbers produce a current Misery Index of only 8.9 - inflation of 3.9% plus unemployment of 5%. That's not far from the Misery Index's low of 6.1 seen in 1998................................

 
 
Click On This Link To View The Entire Article
Dollar
(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 
 
"Dollar Falls Most Against Euro In Month On Sentiment, Crude Oil" - Bloomberg
 
Inflation
(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff
 
"Food Costs Jump Most in 18 Years" - Washington Post
 
May 15 - Rising global grain prices helped spark the largest increase in monthly food costs in nearly 20 years, as consumers paid more in April for cereals and baked goods, and the dairy, meat and other animal products that rely on feedstocks, the government reported yesterday.
Food prices have risen at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.1 percent past three months. The 0.9 percent rise from March to April was the biggest one-month advance since January 1990, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rise in prices covered all categories of food but was most severe among such staples as grains and oils -- goods where inflation has touched off food riots in some less developed countries and led to concerns about shortages......................
 
 
Real Estate
(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 
 
" State Foreclosure Sales Hit Record High "- Silicon Valley Mercury News
 

May 13 -- More than 1,000 California properties were foreclosed upon each weekday in April, setting a bleak new record for the state's troubled housing market, while foreclosures in Santa Clara County surged 585 percent from a year earlier. Last month's foreclosures totaled 22,838 statewide, according to ForeclosureRadar.com, a Discovery Bay company that provides such information to subscribers. That's an average of 1,038 foreclosure auction sales occurring each business day in April, said company president and founder Sean O'Toole. In Santa Clara County, 500 properties were foreclosed upon in April, up 47 percent from March 2008, and up 585 percent from April 2007.

The county ranked 40th last month among California counties in terms of foreclosures per capita, ForeclosureRadar reported. The total worth of the loans foreclosed upon in the county last month was $292.4 million. The foreclosure process begins when a mortgage lender or loan servicing company files a "notice of default" with a county records office, typically a few months after a property owner stops making mortgage payments. About four months later, if the owner has been unable to sell the property or get up-to-date with his payments, the foreclosure concludes with an auction sale of the property at a courthouse or other public venue..................

 
Gold
(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff
 
"Gold Increases Most In 10 Weeks On Record Oil, Weakening Dollar"- Bloomberg

May 16 -- Gold rose the most in 10 weeks as energy costs surged to a record and the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained. Crude-oil futures reached $127.82 a barrel, the highest ever, and the dollar fell for the first time in four sessions against the euro. Gold is still down 13 percent from a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when oil and the euro set previous highs.
``The gold and crude-oil relationship is out of whack and due to adjust,'' said James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com, which held $355 million in gold and silver in storage for investors at the end of April. ``Gold has a lot of catching up to do and will rise as a result.'' 

Gold futures for June delivery climbed $19.90, or 2.3 percent, to $899.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since March 5. The metal has gained 1.6 percent this week and 7.4 percent this year.
Silver futures for July delivery rose 27.5 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $16.96 an ounce. The price rose 0.3 percent this week and has advanced 14 percent this year.
The euro traded as high as $1.5601 today after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence this month dropped to the lowest in 28 years and construction of single-family houses in the U.S. fell in April to a 17-year low. The currency reached a record $1.6019 on April 22.........................

Click On This Link To View The Entire Article


Oil
(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff
 
"Oil Surges On Bullish Goldman Sachs Estimate"- International Herald Tribune
 

May 16 --  Crude oil futures rose above $127 a barrel Friday for the first time, leading other commodities higher, after Goldman Sachs raised its forecast on speculation that Chinese diesel purchases would strain supplies. Goldman raised its price outlook for the second half of this year to $141 a barrel, from $107, citing supply constraints. China may increase fuel imports to generate power after a May 12 earthquake. Oil and other commodities, like gold and platinum, also surged on the falling dollar. "We can blame Goldman again," said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA in New York. "In March 2005 they predicted that prices would rise dramatically, and they did. Prices jumped to the $125 level after another Goldman report less than two weeks ago. At this point nobody wants to bet against Goldman." Crude oil for June delivery rose $3.13, or 2.5 percent, to $127.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract surged to $127.82, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices have doubled in the past year. Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $3.26, or 2.7 percent, to $125.89 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract touched a record $126.34 today...................

 
Futures Prices 
 
Todays Prices (May 17, 2008)
*Gold Futures $899.9/Ounce (Up)
 
Last Weeks Prices (May 10, 2008)
*Dollar Index 73.225/Basket Of Currencies 
*Gold Futures $885/Ounce 
* Crude Oil $125.96/Barrel
Federal Funds Rate 2.00%
Federal Discount Rate 2.25%
30yr Fixed Mortgage 5.74%
 
Thank you for taking the time to read this e-mail and don't hesitate to contact me at (909) 910-9618 or by e-mail at
Info@PhilDeCarolis.com if you have any questions or concerns. Feel free to forward this e-mail to anyone that will find this information useful.
Feel free to utilize my website as your online resource since it is a central location to access some of the most important information that you need to know http://www.PhilDeCarolis.com
Prudential California Realty
Phil De Carolis
Realtor/Investor
Cell (909) 910-9618
Fax (909) 752-5353


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