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"These are the consequences of our economy which produces enormous trade deficits, it's failed monetary policy and economic policy that put all of this wealth into foreign hands. We bought all of these products from the rest of the world, we couldn't pay for them, we don't have the manufacturing infrastucture to pay for our imports with "stuff" so now we are paying for all of the trinkets that we bought by exporting our companies and our assets" -Peter Schiff

 

 

 

As the price of gold has taken some lumps since it crashed into the symbolically significant $1,000 per ounce mark back in March, those on Wall Street who had consistently underplayed its potential on its way up are now assuring its continued retreat. According to these gold market spectators, prices have risen solely as a result of financial panic, and now that the fear has apparently subsided, gold's gains will evaporate as well.

I have been buying gold and gold stocks for myself and my clients since 1999 and not once did I buy out of fear. In fact, from my perspective the only fear I've observed in the gold market is from those who have been too afraid to buy.

While fear may from time to time play a role in creating price spikes in gold, the underlying bull market has been driven by solid fundamentals. Those who have been too afraid to buy simply do not understand the underlying dynamics and have instead decided that the market is irrational. As a result, gold continues to climb the classic wall of worry as any dip in its otherwise upward trajectory causes the speculative investors to jump ship.

Gold's ascent from less than $300 an ounce to its current level was, and is, being driven by those who prefer it as a store of value to the paper alternatives offered by governments. As the Federal Reserve's dollar debasement policy kicks into high gear and other central banks around the world are forced to follow suit to maintain their pegs against the dollar, the rational choice for long term investors is gold. Thus, the decision to buy is not rooted in fear but reason. On the other hand, the decision not to buy is not only rooted in fear, but ignorance as well.

Those oblivious to gold's warnings instead place their trust in government-supplied statistics. Based simply on flimsy CPI reports, these observers believe that inflation is nowhere in evidence, and that the flight to gold is therefore unwarranted. Yesterday's GDP report provides the latest illustration of this dynamic. The government was able to present an annualized first quarter growth rate of .9% based on an assumed annualized rate of inflation of only 2.6%. In other words, inflation in the first quarter of 2008 was the lowest first quarter inflation in the last four years. How such a claim did not elicit howls of laughter is beyond me. The government previously reported that in the years 2007, 2006, and 2005, annualized first quarter inflation rates were 4.2%, 3.4% and 3.9% respectively. Does anyone, besides Fed governors and Wall Street economists, really believe inflation so far in 2008 is 33% below the average rate over the past three years?

Many of those who place their faith with government figures and dismiss the movements in gold believe that inflation is not a problem so long as wages are not rising rapidly. The fact that wages are lagging other prices merely means that inflation is that much more problematic for average Americans. Ironically, what is overlooked is that wages are in fact rising, just not in America. They are rising in the nations that produce the goods that we consume, and those higher costs are indeed being passed on to Americans.

However, recent action in the bond market suggests that a few more people are getting wise to the government's con. This week, yields on long-term treasuries hit new highs for the year, with the yield on the ten year up 90 basis points from its March low. While the Pollyannas on Wall Street attribute this move to the strengthening U.S. economy, those of us buying gold know it's more likely a long overdue increase in inflation expectations. Got gold?

For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse."  

 

 

 

May 31, 2008: Philip X. Tirone Part 2

Bruce Norris is joined once again by president of 7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and The Mortgage Equity Group, Philip X. Tirone. Bruce and Philip discuss how detrimental it is to be surrounded by comps dominated by short sales or foreclosures, how using recent sales in the current market hurts prices, FHA loan seasoning and the difficulty investors face selling in the current California market, how each half percent of interest rate gives the loan more borrowing power, the Case Shiller and how the index does not reflect foreclosure numbers, how foreclosures won't always dictate price, as is inventory versus clean inventory, appraisal rules coming up in January 2009, how banks will want to use their own valuation system which could cause more problems, automated valuation systems, how being labeled a declining state changes conventional financing, new labeling categories in hard hit areas that require 40% down, the attitudes lenders have towards inventory in rough shape, appraisal reviews becoming the norm, the time change for transactions, income levels of potential clients, examples of lenders undervaluing properties and dictating price lower than current offers, proposed fixes in the mortgage mess and if any will help, more questions coming in about what will happen if people walk away from their property, the time frame it takes to become a buyer again after a foreclosure, illegal aliens and home ownership, how lenders are being more careful in their due diligence on anyone trying to obtain a loan, new Fannie Mae limitations on investor loans.

 

 

 

 

(Sep 18, 2007)- "If the dollar loses value too quickly, it could wreak havoc on the economy and financial markets - driving up interest rates and inflation and slashing Americans' purchasing power" -Peter Schiff 

 

 

(Sep 19, 2007)- "People keep talking about Fed bailouts as if there is no cost. All the Fed can do is create new dollars. What that does is diminish the value of all the dollars everybody already has. They try to socialize the losses among all the holders of dollars" -Peter Schiff

 

(Aug 16, 2007)- "The housing bubble has burst. Prices are going to collapse and sales are going to fall through the floor." -Peter Schiff 

 

 May 28 -- California home prices tumbled 32 percent in April from a year earlier as ``distressed'' properties and a lack of financing cut demand, the state realtors group said. The median existing home price fell to $403,870, the California Association of Realtors said in a statement today. Sales increased 2.5 percent, ending 30 months of consecutive year-on-year declines. Homes priced under $500,000 accounted for 64 percent of sales compared with 40 percent a year earlier.  California had the second-highest U.S. foreclosure rate in April, one for every 204 households, and the most foreclosure filings for the 16th consecutive month, RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, reported on May 14. Sales increased in northern and southern California last month as buyers purchased discounted properties that had been in some stage of default, DataQuick Information Systems said this week. ``Both tighter underwriting standards and the ongoing effects of the credit/liquidity crunch continue to constrain sales,'' William Brown, president of the association, said in the statement.

 

(Sep 21, 2007)- "With the Federal Funds Rate cut, the Fed revealed that it has no interest in defending the dollar or containing inflation. This kind of irresponsibility is all gold needs to move higher from its current levels unless the Fed somehow finds its backbone within a year or two, then gold has a good chance to take out its inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,000 per ounce within this decade." -Peter Schiff

 

 

(July 31, 2007)- "It's going to soon hit $90 and go north of $100 next year. We should see $150 to $200 oil in the next two to three years because of the drop in the dollar.'' -Peter Schiff